区域房地产市场四方有限理性博弈研究

基于有限理性、适应性预期和非均衡市场,建立区域房产商、地方政府、金融机构和购房者之间的动态博弈模型,并运用博弈论、动力系统理论和数值模拟、延迟反馈控制方法对博弈的动态演化进行分析.结果表明,在市场供求非均衡下,有限理性的房地产市场主要四方主体可通过动态重复博弈达成渐近稳定的Nash均衡;购房者刚性需求占比、土地整治成本率、城镇化率、土地财政依存度和房屋租金率的升高,会推动房地产行业均衡供给、需求和价格上扬;房产保有税率、二次交易税率和房产投资机会成本率的上升,会促使房地产行业均衡供给、需求和价格下行;而房产商综合税负率的上升,则推高该行业的均衡需求和房价.建议中央政府房地产市场调控政策不要直接着眼于供给、需求和房产商税负,应从城镇化、土地财政、房产保有税、二次交易税费、投资机会成本和保障房建设着手,调整各方预期,以市场主体自我调节来实现房地产市场的健康可持续发展.

Research on the game of 4-player with bounded rationality in regional real estate market

Based on bounded rationality, adaptive expectations and disequilibrium market, the dynamic model of game among developers, local government, financial institutions and buyers in regional real estate market is built. Using game theory, dynamical systems theory and numerical simulation and DFC method, the authors study the dynamic evolution of the game. The results show that the asymptotically stable Nash equilibrium of the game can be reached by dynamic game among 4 main bodies of the market with bounded rationality on condition that regional real estate market supply and demand are unbalanced. The rising of rigid demand rate of the buyers, land remediation cost rate, urbanization rate, degree of financial dependence on the land and housing rental rate will all promote the equilibrium value of the supply, demand and prices in the real estate industry. And the rising of the property maintain tax rate, secondary transaction tax rate and real estate investment opportunity cost rate will all make the real estate industry supply, demand and prices downturn. However, the rising of comprehensive tax rate that the real estate developers burden will promote the equilibrium value of demand and prices. The authors suggest that the Central Government's real estate market regulation policies making should focus on the urbanization, land financial, the property maintain tax, secondary transaction tax and fee, investment opportunity cost and indemnificatory housing construction, rather than directly to focus on supply, demand and developers' comprehensive tax burden rate. The Central Government should adjust expectations of the main bodies of the market, and take advantage of the market self-regulation to achieve the healthy sustainable development of real estate market.