中国煤炭产能系统动力学预测与调控潜力分析

基于中国煤炭产能及其影响因素之间的反馈机制,开展了中国煤炭产能系统动力学预测与调控潜力的研究.研究认为:1)十三.五期间中国煤炭产能仍将持续增长,政策情景下中国煤炭产能2020年将达到46.35亿吨,较之于基准情景减少5.09亿吨;2)政策情景下中国煤炭供过于求的压力显著大于基准情景,2020年供需缺口达到6.46亿吨,其根源在于政策情景下煤炭需求得到了有效控制,而基准情景下煤炭供需缺口的相对减小则是煤炭供需过度增长的结果;3)调控情景下我国煤炭产能在2020年达到44.20亿吨,较之基准情景降低7.23亿吨,落后产能淘汰、煤炭进口限额、煤炭价格管制以及煤炭投资约束是煤炭产能调控的关键.

China's coal production capacity forecast and the regulation potentiality analysis based on SD model

Based on the feedback mechanism between China's coal production capacity (CPC) and its influence factors, the CPC system dynamics model is constructed to forecast the change of China's CPC and its related factors' regulation potentiality. Research indicates that: 1) China's CPC will continue growing during the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and it will reach 4.635 billion tons in 2020 in the Policy Scenario (PS), a reduction of 509 million tons compared with that in the Baseline Scenario (BS). 2) The gap between China's coal supply and demand in PS will reach 646 million tons in 2020. And the pressure from coal supply over demand in the PS is significantly greater than that in BS, which is because the coal demand is effectively controlled in the PS. 3) China's CPC will reach 4.420 billion tons in 2020 in the regulation scenario, a reduction of 723 million tons compared with that in the benchmark scenario. The key to CPC regulation lies in backward capacity elimination, coal import quota, coal price controls and coal investment constraints.