| DGM(1,1)模型的特性及其在技术创新领域中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏先娜,谢富纪.DGM(1,1)模型的特性及其在技术创新领域中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(3):635-641. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏先娜 谢富纪 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院, 上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71373158);国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AZD015);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金(2012SJB630064) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文首先提出了以前文献对DCM(1,1)与GM(1,1)模型关系的证明错误,否定了以前文献的一些观点.第二,证明了DGOM(1,1)模型的MAPE值与边值x~((1))(m)(1≤m≤n)无关.第三,发现DGOM(1,1)模型的MAPE值变劣现象并分析其原因.第四,用最小一乘法,构建了边值优化的DGOMII(1,1)模型,其效果优于DGOM(1,1)模型.最后,将DGM(1,1)及DGOMII(1,1)模型应用于技术创新领域中.
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| 关 键 词： | DGM(1 1)模型 DGOM(1 1)模型 最小一乘法 技术创新 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-10-11 |
The properties of model DGM(1,1) and its application in technology innovation |
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| SU Xianna,XIE Fuji.The properties of model DGM(1,1) and its application in technology innovation[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2016,36(3):635-641. |
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| Authors: | SU Xianna XIE Fuji |
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| Institution: | Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper firstly put forward the proof errors on the relationship between model DGM(1, 1) and GM(1, 1) and denied some viewpoints in the previous literatures; Secondly, the MAPE value of model DGOM(1, 1) was proved to be independent of the initial value x(1)(m)(1≤ m≤ n); Thirdly, the deterioration phenomenon of the MAPE value of model DGOM(1, 1) was found and the reason was analyzed; Fourthly, its performance of model DGOMII(1, 1) based on the initial value optimization by least absolution deviation was better than that of DGOM(1, 1); Finally, model DGM(1, 1) and DGOMII(1, 1) were applied to the field of technology innovation. |
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| Keywords: | DGM(1 1) model DGOM(1 1) model least absolution deviation technology innovation |
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