基于累积前景理论的合乘行为建模与研究

在一个存在HOV(high occupancyvehicle)车道的交通系统中,针对两种出行方式:单独驾车出行和合乘出行,给出了可能出现的HOV车道合乘者、普通车道合乘者和单独驾车者三类通勤者的出行费用函数.假设通勤者会经历一段具有离散分布的随机时间,本文基于累积前景理论和期望效用理论对比分析了通勤者的出行方式和路径选择均衡结果,并对单独驾车者比例参数、参考点等个体偏好参数进行了敏感性分析.研究结果表明,通勤者的风险偏好和参考依赖特征确实会影响出行方式和路径选择.当单独驾车者比例超过某一临界值后,合乘者比单独驾车者具有较高的累积前景值,具有一定的优越性,而期望效用理论则会稍微高估这一临界比例.

Modelling carpooling behavior based on cumulative prospect theory

In a traffic system with HOV lanes, considering two modes of driving alone and carpooling, we proposed three kinds of travel cost functions for potential commuters such as carpoolers in HOV lanes, driving alone users and carpoolers in general purpose lanes. Assume that all commuters will experience a random travel time with discrete distribution during their trip, this paper compared the commuters' equilibrium choices of travel mode and travel route under the framework of cumulative prospect theory and expected utility theory. In addition, the sensitivity analysis on the proportion of driving alone users, the individual preference such as the reference point were conducted. The resultant observations show that the individuals' risk preference and reference dependence definitely affect the commuters' choices on the travel mode and travel route. When the proportion of driving alone users exceeds a critical value, the carpooling users will be better than driving alone users since they have higher cumulative prospect value. However, this critical value will be slightly overestimated under the framework of expected utility theory.