气候变化背景下中巴经济走廊崩滑灾害危险性动态评价及预测

中巴经济走廊地处高山峡谷冰川地带，是全球气候变化最为敏感和复杂的地区。近年来，随着全球气候变暖，导致走廊内冰川融化、降雨增加，崩滑灾害频发，严重威胁着当地居民的安全和重大工程的顺利实施。以中巴经济走廊北部山区为研究区，在分析区域自然地质环境和崩滑灾害分布特征的基础上，选取相对高差、坡度、坡向、曲率、岩组、断裂带密度、河网密度、距冰川距离、地震加速度、土地利用10个评价因子，通过信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型对研究区进行了崩滑灾害静态危险性评价。在验证模型可靠性的基础上，引入动态降雨及气温对崩塌滑坡危险性的影响，进行了动态危险性评价和预测。结果表明：中巴经济走廊北部山区崩滑灾害的较高危险区主要集中在红其拉甫至哈维连一带坡度陡峭的山区和地形起伏大的河谷两岸。受气候变化的影响，研究区较高危险区面积占比总体呈波动上升趋势。相关成果对中巴经济走廊的发展规划及防灾减灾具有重要指导意义。

Dynamic evaluation of the risk of landslide disasters in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under the background of climate change

Abstract: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is located in the alpine and glacier valleys, which is the most sensitive and complex area of global climate change. In recent years, with global warming, the glaciers in the corridor have melted, rainfall has increased, and landslides have occurred frequently, which seriously threatens the safety of local residents and the smooth implementation of major projects. In this study, the northern mountainous area of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was used as the study area. On the basis of analyzing the regional natural geological environment and the distribution characteristics of landslide disasters,10 evaluation factors including relative height difference, slope, aspect, curvature, rock group, fault zone density, river network density, distance from glaciers, seismic acceleration and land use were selected. The static risk assessment of landslide disasters in the study area was carried out through the coupled information-logistic regression model. On the basis of verifying the reliability of the model, the effects of dynamic rainfall and air temperature on the risk of landslides were introduced, and the dynamic risk was evaluated and predicted. It is concluded that the high-risk area are mainly concentrated in the area from Khunjerab to Havilian, especially on sides of the river valley with steep slopes and large undulating terrain. And under the influence of climate change, the proportion of high-risk areas in the study area fluctuated and increased. The relevant results have important guiding significance for the development planning and disaster prevention and mitigation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.