中国经济增长、电力消费与碳排放量关系研究

以1981～2009年数据为样本,运用ADF单位根检验、VAR模型,Johansen多变量协整检验、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果分析对经济增长、电力消费与碳排放量的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化进行分析。结果表明经济增长、电力消费和碳排放量都属于二阶单整序列;三变量之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,且当均衡关系在短期内偏离长期均衡时,误差修正模型将以69.39%的调整力度将其调整至均衡状态;碳排放量与经济增长、电力消费与经济增长、碳排放量与电力消费都互为Granger因果关系。

Research on the Relationship among Economic Growth, Electricity Consumptionand Carbon Emissions in China

Based on ADP unit root test,VAR model,Johansen multivariate co-integration,Error Correction Model(ECM) and Granger Causality Test,long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamic change was analyzed among economic growth,electricity consumption and carbon emissions with annual data over the period 1981~2009 in China.The results showed that economic growth,electricity consumption and carbon emissions were second-order integration series,long-run stable co-integration relationships were found among these three variables,when deviating from the long-run equilibrium state,relationship would be adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium at the speed of 69.39% by EMC model,carbon emissions and economic growth,as well as electricity consumption and economic growth,carbon emissions and electricity consumption were Granger causality to each other.