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| 河川径流序列协整预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 畅明琦,刘俊萍. 河川径流序列协整预测研究[J]. 应用科学学报, 2005, 23(6): 654-657 |
| 作者姓名： | 畅明琦 刘俊萍 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学水利水电学院, 陕西西安 710048;2. 山西省水资源研究所, 山西太原 030001;3. 浙江工业大学建筑工程学院, 浙江杭州 310014 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079021) |
| 摘 要： | 针对河川径流序列的非平稳性,将协整理论引入河川径流分析中,以建立可靠的数学模型.以黄河为例,通过单位根检验,协整检验,建立了上下游之间的误差校正模型,用于描述流域上下游径流间的协整关系,并初步建立协整预测模型,结果表明,预测模型是可行的. |
| 关 键 词： | 河川径流 协整理论 单位根 误差校正 |
| 文章编号： | 0255-8297（2005）06-0654-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-04-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-04-022004-09-03 |
A Study on the Cointegration Forecast of Runoff |
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| CHANG Ming-qi,LIU Jun-ping. A Study on the Cointegration Forecast of Runoff[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2005, 23(6): 654-657 | |
| Authors: | CHANG Ming-qi LIU Jun-ping |
| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Water Resources & Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China;2. Shanxi Institute of Water Resources, Taiyuan 030001, China;3. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China |
| Abstract: | A view of the nonstationary nature of runoff series,the cointegration theory is introduced into the analysis of runoff to establish reliable mathematical model.Taking the Yellow River as an example,through unit root testing and cointegration testing,the error correction model which can describe the cointegration relationship between the runoff of the upper and lower reaches is set up.In this way the initial cointegration forecasting model is set up.The results show that the forecasting model is feasible. |
| Keywords: | runoff cointegration theory unit root error correction |
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