香港住宅产业发展的系统动力学研究

以系统思想为出发点 ,通过建立一个系统动力学模型 ,对香港住宅产业发展这样一个社会济系统问题作些探讨 .致力寻找出这个系统中各类因素的互相影响与互相制约的动态关系 ,并将主要的关系尽可能地作出定量的描述 .经成功构造模型后 ,利用计算机仿真模拟得出政策决策者关心的趋势性结论 .在某个指定的时间区间内 ,这些结论的指导除了会使住宅产业发展迂更明确的方向性外 ,同时也是对政策的一种重要的支持 .用系统动力学方法研究香港城市住宅产业发展 ,在该领域是一项新的尝试.

A System Dynamics Study of the Development of the Housing Industry in Hong Kong

Based on the theory of system dynamics and through the use of one of its models, this paper investigates the social-economic issues involved in the development of the housing industry in Hong Kong. This paper aims to identify the dynamic relationship among major inter\|related factors in the system and describes the interactions quantitatively. It illustrates that by establishing and using a system dynamics model and simulation technique we can generate the trends concerned by many decision\|makers. It also demonstrates that the results from the system not only can provide the directions for future development, but also provide important support to decision-makings. The use of system dynamics model in the area of housing development is a new and rewarding attempt.