| 电力系统短期负荷的混沌时间序列预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟瑜,张春涛,黄孝超,郭永慧.电力系统短期负荷的混沌时间序列预测[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2011,27(3):15-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟瑜 张春涛 黄孝超 郭永慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆三峡学院数学与统计学院,重庆万州,404100
2. 重庆市电力公司万州供电局,重庆万州,404100 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆三峡学院第六届"挑战杯"大学生课外学术科技作品竞赛项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力系统短期负荷预测在电力系统的调度和管理中起着重要的作用,已有研究证明了电力短期负荷是一非线性动力系统,负荷时间序列是混沌时间序列.文章讨论混沌时间序列的相空间重构技术,并以实际电网为例重构了该电力系统的相空间,最后采用Elman递归神经网络对负荷时间序列进行仿真预测,预测结果表明采用该方法能取得较好的预测效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌时间序列 负荷时间序列 相空间重构 Elman神经网络预测 |
Short-term load forecasting based on chaotic time series |
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| ZHONG Yu,ZHANG Chun-tao,HUANG Xiao-chao,GUO Yong-hui.Short-term load forecasting based on chaotic time series[J].JOurnal of Chongqing Three Gorges University,2011,27(3):15-19. |
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| Authors: | ZHONG Yu ZHANG Chun-tao HUANG Xiao-chao GUO Yong-hui |
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| Institution: | ZHONG Yu1 ZHANG Chun-tao1 HUANG Xiao-chao2 GUO Yong-hui1(1.College of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Wanzhou 404100,China)(2.Chongqing Power Company Wanzhou PSB,China) |
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| Abstract: | Short-term load forecasting is very important for dispatching and Management of power systems.It's proved that short-term load is an nonlinear dynamic system,so power load time series is a kind of chaotic time series.Firstly,this article studies chaotic time series' phase space reconstruction technology,and reconstructs phase space of a practical power system's short-term load.In the end,the practical power system's numerical simulation reveals that the method of using Elman network can obtain better perfor... |
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| Keywords: | power load time series phase space reconstruction Elman network's prediction |
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