南方涛动对广西干旱的影响

通过对南方涛动指数与广西春秋干旱的时空变化规律及与影响广西春秋降雨的天气系统的关系的分析。找出了7月及头年8月南方涛动指数分别与秋季和次年春季降雨的关系较为密切。并且,这两个月的南方涛动指数对影响春、秋降雨的天气系统有明显的制约作用。用这两个月的SOI值制作的春秋干旱的GM(1,2)模型,其效果较令人满意。

The Affection of South oscillation on the Drought in Guangxi

In the paper. by analysing the law of time-space changes of south oscillation exponent and drought in spring and fall in Guangxi and the relation between south oscillation exponent and weather systems which affect the precipitation in spring and fall in Guang, we found that the south oscillation exponent in July affects drought in fall and the south oscillation exponent in August last year influences the drought in spring, and more, the south Oscillation exponents in these two months have a restriction weather systems which affect drought in spring and fall. The GM(1,2) model was made in the light of the SOI Values in these two months The result was rather satisfactory.