新疆入境旅游客源市场时空变化特征研究

以1999—2008年新疆入境市场的相关统计数据为基础，运用亲景度和市场竞争态指标，采用定量分析的方法，对新疆入境旅游客源市场时间和空间变化特征进行了分析，并从时空角度探讨4类亲景度市场和4种市场竞争态的相关性．结果表明，①新疆入境旅游客源市场亲景度差异显著，大部分属于亲景市场，年际变化较大，呈下降趋势，亲景度空间变化层次明显；②新疆入境旅游客源市场竞争态的转移形态为飞跃→稳定→衰退→复苏→衰退→复苏→衰退，总体呈现恶化趋势；③亲景度高的客源市场多为幼童和瘦狗市场，亲景度低的客源市场却不一定是明星市场和金牛市场，后两者并不存在必然的联系．确定了新疆入境旅游发展的重点市场、主要市场和潜在市场，提出了对策建议．

A Study on Characteristics of the Time and Spatial Variation of Inbound Tourist Markets in Xinjiang

This paper analyzed the characteristics of the time and spatial variation of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang from 1999 to 2008 based on familiarity with scenic destination and market competitive state according to Chinese Traveling Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook as well as other data materials. It mainly utilized the quantitative method. It explored the relativity between four categories of familiarity with scenic destination and four categories of market competitive states from the time and spatial angle. The results showed as follows. （1）Difference of familiarity with scenic destination of inbound tourism markets in Xinjiang was outstanding, most of countries belonged to familiarity with scenic destination, that is to say, they prefered traveling in Xiniiang; Annual change of the familiarity with scenic destination of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang was evident, it was being present to a descending tendency. In other words, the preference for tourism in Xiniiang declined; Spatial change of the familiarity with scenic destination of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang was obvious. （2）Transfer form of market competitive state of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang was from leap to steady, recession, recovery, recession, recovery and recession. Overall, It was being present to deteriorate. （3）Most of high familiarity with scenic destination of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang was thin-dog and child markets, low familiarity with scenic destination of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang was not always star and golden-ox markets, depending on the outcome of studying the familiarity with scenic destination and market competitive state, the paper divided Xinjiang inbound tourist markets into three categories, important markets, main markets, and latent markets. The suggestion was given to provide the new gist for competitive power of inbound tourist markets in Xinjiang.