项目风险模糊灰色综合评价方法研究

针对单纯采用模糊评价或灰色评价方法都不能客观、准确地评价项目总体风险大小这一问题，利用灰色聚类理论得到指标灰色统计量，构造项目风险模糊隶属度矩阵，建立了一种灰色评价与模糊评价相结合的风险综合评价方法，该方法能充分利用专家评判信息的模糊性与灰性，使项目风险评价更为客观、准确。将此方法应用于航空武器装备项目风险综合评价的结果表明，该方法可行且有效。

Research on Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Project Risk

The mere contraposive adoptation of fuzzy evaluation or grey evaluation methods can not evaluate the problem of general risks of the project objectively and accurately. The grey clustering theory can be used to obtain the index grey statistics, to structure the project risk fuzzy subjection matric and to establish the comprehensive risk evaluation method of combing grey evaluation with fuzzy evaluation. This method can make full use of fuzziness and greyness of judgement information by the experts whereby making the project risk evaluation more objective and accurate. The results obtained from the application of this method to the comprehensive evaluation of aviation weapon equipment project risks indicate that this method is feasible and effective.