山区高速公路事故涉及车辆数致因分析

为减少山区高速公路的交通事故发生率以及提升其交通安全性,对山区高速公路交通事故中涉及车辆数的影响因素进行分析。首先对西部某高速近八年来发生的一万多起交通事故进行时空特性分析和起因分析；其次以事故涉及车辆数为因变量,将其分为单车、双车、多车事故三个等级,并从驾驶员、车辆、行驶环境等层面选取8个潜在自变量作为有序Logit模型的分析因子,得到显著性小于0.05的6个自变量；最后利用有序Logit模型对6个显著变量进行分类,通过分析得到各自变量分类优势比(or)大小,并采用负二项回归(NB)模型验证自变量分类风险大小的正确性。分析结果表示各自变量分类中的冬季、涉及大货、间距不足、收费站、晴、白天等分类优势比最大,且优势比在有序Logit模型分析时变化更大,说明有序Logit模型比负二项回归模型更适合用于分析事故涉及车辆数变量的分类优势比。结论表明,在交通安全治理时尽量控制优势比大的因素可减小事故车辆数,从而可间接降低严重事故的发生率,为高速公路管理提供有力的决策依据。

AnalysisSofStheSfactorsSofStheSnumberSofSvehiclesSinvolvedSinSfreewaySaccidentsSinSmountainousSareas

In order to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents and improve the traffic safety of mountainous expressway, the influencing factors of the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents are analyzed. Firstly, this paper analyzed the time-space characteristics and causes of more than 10000 traffic accidents in the past eight years of a certain expressway in Western China; secondly, taking the number of vehicles involved in the accident as the dependent variable, it was divided into three levels: single vehicle, double vehicle and multi vehicle accidents. Eight potential independent variables were selected as the analysis factors of ordered logit model from the aspects of driver, vehicle and driving environment, and six independent variables with significance less than 0.05 were obtained; Finally, six significant variables were classified by using ordered logit model, and their classification odds ratio (or) was obtained through analysis, and the correctness of the independent variable classification risk was verified by using negative binomial regression (NB) model. The analysis results show that the advantage ratio of winter, involving large cargo, insufficient spacing, toll station, sunny day and other categories is the largest, and the advantage ratio changes more in the analysis of the ordered logit model, which shows that the ordered logit model is more suitable than the negative binomial regression model to analyze the classification advantage ratio of the number of vehicles involved in accidents. The conclusion shows that controlling the factors with large advantage ratio can reduce the number of accident vehicles, thus indirectly reduce the incidence of serious accidents, which provides a strong decision basis for highway management.