工业园区企业安全生产达标策略选择演化研究——基于溢出效应视角

针对工业园区企业生产安全事故频发的问题，考虑"一刀切停产整顿"管制产生的负外部溢出效应、事故损失负外部溢出效应对企业安全生产达标策略选择的影响.运用计算实验方法，抽象出政府安监部门、园区企业、服务机构以及园区管理方四类主体，构建多主体参与下安全生产达标策略选择的计算实验模型.实验结果表明：随着事故发生后管制负外部溢出效应的增加，企业选择安全生产托管和自主达标的意愿增强，但是超越一定临界值时企业更偏好于选择等待观望的策略；另外随着事故损失负外部溢出效应的增加，企业更偏向于选择以等待观望应对复杂的市场环境.政府相关部门应考虑工业园区的特殊性，合理采取"一刀切停产整顿"的措施，引导安全生产资源实力弱的企业购买安全生产托管服务.

Research on the evolution of strategy choice for work safety of enterprises in the industrial park — From the perspective of spillover effect

In view of the frequent occurrence of safety accidents in the industrial park, the impact of negative spillover effects caused by ‘One-sizes-fits-all’ safety regulation and accidents on selecting work safety strategy for enterprises are taken into consideration. Four agents including government, enterprises in the industrial park, work-safety-services organization and park management are abstracted in order to build a computational experiment model for selection of work safety strategy under multi-agent participation by computational experiment method. The results show that with the increase of negative spillover effects of safety regulation, enterprises' willingness of selecting specialized trusteeship and meeting the standard on their own is increasingly enhanced. However, once the spillover effects are beyond a certain value, the enterprises prefer to choose wait-and-see. With the increase of negative spillover effects owing to accidents, the enterprise inclines to select wait-and-see to cope with the complex market environment. Therefore, the government should use ‘One-size-fits-all’ safety regulation reasonably considering the particularity of enterprises in the industrial park, and guide enterprises with weak resources to buy services.