风险投资能筛选并培育优质企业吗?——基于中国创业板的模糊断点回归分析

风险投资（venture capital，简称VC）能否筛选出优质企业进行投资并促进被投企业的业绩改善，是判断新兴市场国家风险投资行业是否成熟的一个重要标志.对于这一问题，针对国内市场的研究匮乏.本文以中国创业板上市企业为研究样本，研究VC能否筛选出优质企业以及能否为被投企业带来业绩改善，并进一步探讨其作用机制.研究发现：1）基于逻辑回归，VC未必能筛选出优质的企业，表现为企业业绩变量回归系数不显著；2）基于模糊断点回归进行内生性调整后，VC能够促进被投企业的发展，对被投企业的业绩改善有正向作用；3）从经营效益和创新角度研究VC影响企业业绩的潜在机制发现：一方面，VC降低了被投企业的销售成本率，提高了企业的经营效益；另一方面，VC的进入为被投企业带来行业经验和资源等，促进被投企业技术或商业模式的创新，从而有助于改善企业的经营业绩.本文实证结果表明国内VC具有"增值"作用，能够创造经济价值，但不具有"筛选"作用，揭示了VC对被投企业业绩的影响及潜在作用机制，为VC能促进被投企业的发展提供了新的实证参考.研究结果对于企业、风险投资机构和政策制定者具有借鉴意义和参考价值.

Can venture capital screen and foster entrepreneurial firms? Empirical evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity

Whether venture capital (VC) can screen out high-quality enterprises to invest and promote their performance is an important indicator to judge whether the venture capital industry in emerging markets is mature or not. Research on this problem in the Chinese market is scarce. Based on the sample of China's GEM listed companies, this paper tries to explore whether VC can screen out high-quality enterprises, whether it can bring performance improvement to the invested companies, and further explore its mechanism. The results show that: 1) Based on the logistic regression, VC may not be able to screen out high-quality enterprises, showing that the regression coefficient of enterprise performance variables is not significant; 2) based on fuzzy regression discontinuity, VC can promote the development of the invested enterprise, and has a positive effect on the performance improvement of the invested enterprise; 3) VC can affecting the performance of the enterprise from the perspective of operational efficiency and innovation: On the one hand, VC reduces the sales cost rate and improves the operating efficiency of the enterprises; on the other hand, the entry of VC brings industry experience and resources to the invested enterprises, promotes their innovation of technology or business model, and thus help them to improve the business performance. The empirical results show that domestic VC has the function of "value-added" and create economic value, but it has no "screening" effect. It reveals the impact of VC on the performance of the invested and its potential mechanism, which provides a new empirical reference for VC's function. The research results have reference value for enterprises, venture capital institutions and policy makers.