地震灾害综合防御界壳的协同演化测度模型

针对地震灾害的综合防御问题，提出了城市抗震防灾多道防线的基本原理，建立了城市抗震防灾的防御界壳理论. 在此基础上，利用防御界壳群之间的交换率为控制变量，引入Lotka-Volterra方程建立了城市抗震防灾多道防线演化模型，分析了多道防线的竞争互补与协同演化的动态机制. 根据序参量的确定原则，选取多道防线系统中序参量，建立了城市抗震 防灾多道防线协同演化的测度模型，并将其应用于南通城市地震灾害综合防御系统. 结果表明，2005年南通抗震防灾综合 防御系统出现了竞争异化特征，系统协调度降低到0.62，之后通过调整各道防线的投入比例，系统协调度恢复了先前水平，并向着更为协调有序方向发展.

Co-evolution measurement model of integrated defense periphery for earthquake disaster

Integrated defense against earthquake disaster is an urgent problem. In this paper, the basic principle of urban multi-lines for seismic defense was proposed. The basic theory of defense periphery for urban earthquake disaster was established. The exchange rate between periphery groups was regard as control variable, and the Lotka-Volterra model was introduced into defense periphery system. The evolution model of urban multi-lines for earthquake disaster defense was set up, which explained the competition and collaboration dynamic mechanism of urban multi-lines for seismic defense. The order parameters of multi-lines defense system were selected according to synergy principle. The co-evolution measurement model of urban multi-lines for defensing earthquake was established, and it was applied to Nantong city earthquake disaster integrated defense system. The result shows that competition alienation characteristics of defense system arise, and system coordination degree is reduced to 0.62. The system is restored to the previous level of coordination degree, and it is developing towards coordinated direction by adjusting the input proportion of multi-lines for seismic defense.