FTA复杂关系网感染效应分析

随着自由贸易协定（Free Trade Agreement，FTA）数量的逐渐增加，世界贸易体系所呈现出多国之间的FTA复杂关系网会对一国签订FTA的意愿产生影响，即产生感染效应. 文章通过四种不同FTA关系网下一国签订FTA 意愿的比较与排序，证明了感染效应的存在； 同时，作者在Baldwin等^1] 的基础上拓展了感染指数，表示不同FTA 关系网的感染效应，并分析了感染效应的影响因素. 研究发现，在FTA复杂关系网下存在显著的感染效应； 进一步地，不同FTA关系网下潜在伙伴国市场在本国出口市场的重要程度、 潜在伙伴国已签订FTA的数量等因素的差异影响感染效应的大小. 本文所分析的感染效应能够为一国选择FTA贸易伙伴提供决策参考.

Contagion effect on the formation of FTA under different free trade networks

With the increasing number of FTAs, a country may establish more than one FTA relationships with others, and the world's trading system is taking on a complex and overlapping FTAs network. Such a network of relationships has a further impact on the willingness of a country's FTA signing, which is called the contagion effect. To test the existence of the contagion effect, we compared the willingness of a country signing an FTA in four cases of FTAs network. In reference to Baldwin et al^1], we developed the contagious index to reflect the contagion effect in different cases, and then analyzed those factors influencing the contagion effect. This study finds that there exists contagion effect significantly. Furthermore, in different cases of FTAs network, factors such as the importance of the markets of potential FTA partners to a country's exports, the quantity of potential FTA partners have signed and the like, affect the intensity of the contagion effect. Our analysis provides a reference to the decision-making for a country to choose FTA partners.