盐岩地下储库运行期失效概率分析

基于响应面法,以有限元为基础,将极限状态曲面近似表示为随机变量的显式,结合蒙特卡罗方法提高失效概率的计算效率;储库整体属于串并联结构体系,根据失效准则确定失效概率最大的单元,以此为基础确定系统的失效模式,计算体系失效概率及可靠度。以金坛盐岩地下储气库为例,计算结果表明腔体中部失效概率随储气内压增大逐渐减小,内压达到一定数值时失效概率又逐渐增大;腔体上部及下部失效概率随内压增大逐渐增大。运行条件下,储库失效主要为内压较大时上部及下部结构的剪切失效。因此,运行过程中应对储气内压严格控制。

Analysis of salt rock underground deposit failure probability in operation period based on response surface method

For the safety of salt rock underground deposit, uncertainties and their influences are considered, and failure probability during operation period is analyzed. Based on finite element model, equation of limit state surface is transformed into explicit equation by response surface method. Combined with Monte Carlo method, computation efficiency is improved. The deposit could be simulated as a series-parallel system. The element with highest failure probability is determined first, then failure mode and system reliability are computed. Taking Jintan underground gas deposit as an example, the analysis indicates that as storage pressure increases, failure probability of middle part of deposit decreases firstly, then increases gradually when storage pressure accumulates to a certain extent. The failure probabilities of upper part and underside of deposit increase as storage pressure increases. During operation period, controlled failure mode is shear failure of upper part and underside of deposit under high storage pressure. In conclusion, the storage pressure during operation period should be controlled strictly.