基于AHP的工程项目管理群决策方法

以层次分析法(AHP)为基础,提出了一种基于AHP的工程项目管理群决策方法.引入综合个体判断信息的几何平均算子,并证明它是群决策判断点估计的一致统计量.这既克服了AHP中个人判断因主观原因带有偏差甚至与实际结果相反的问题,又合理解释了决策个体的初始判断与最终结果之间出现不一致的现象.最后,作为应用算例,考虑兰州某黄河大桥项目的建设风险,将基于AHP的群决策方法应用于该项目的风险分析,说明了方法的有效性.

Group decision-making method of engineering project management based on AHP

On the basis of AHP theory,a technique of group decision-making for engineering project management is proposed.A geometric average operator for integrating the information of personal judgments is introduced,and the consistency of point estimation of the group decision-making opinion is proved,which can not only overcome the deviations and inconsistencies,even the opposite effects between individual judgment and decision-making result due to the subjective reasons,but also offer a reasonable explanation why there is an inconsistency between the initial individual judgment and the final results of group decision-making.Finally,as a numerical example,the paper gives an analysis of the construction risk of a Lanzhou Yellow River Bridge project,and the method of group decision-making based on AHP is applied to the risk analysis of this project,with the results indicating the effectiveness of this technique.