| 灰色组合预测模型及其在人口预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张凌霜,王丰效.灰色组合预测模型及其在人口预测中的应用[J].河南科学,2009,27(8):918-920. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张凌霜 王丰效 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西理工学院,数学系,陕西,汉中,723000 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅科研基金项目，陕西理工学院科研基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分别以原始数据的一次累加生成序列中的每个数据作为初始条件，建立了多个GM（1，1）预测模型，进一步建立了线№组合预测模型，组合模型的权系数利用蚁群算法确定．最后给出了我国人口数量的组合预测模型，计算结果表明，灰色组合预测模型的拟合和预测精度要优于单个传统预测模型．
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 组合预测模型 蚁群算法 |
Combination Gray Forecast Model and Its Application in Population Prediction |
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| Zhang Lingshuang,Wang Fengxiao.Combination Gray Forecast Model and Its Application in Population Prediction[J].Henan Science,2009,27(8):918-920. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Lingshuang Wang Fengxiao |
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| Institution: | Department of Mathematics;Shaanxi University of Technology;Hanzhong 723000;Shaanxi China |
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| Abstract: | From the building mechanism of grey model,the GM(1,1)prediction models are built separately. Using those models,the linear combination gray GM(1,1)model is presented and weight coefficients are obtained by ant colony algorithm. Population combination forecast model is established. The result indicate that the precision of combination prediction model is higher than any one model in terms of fit and predictionthe and this model is proved to be precise and reliableis. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1)model combination forecast model ant colony algorithm |
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