高压燃气管道破裂的定量风险分析

高压燃气管道破裂将会危及到破裂点附近的生命财产安全．管道泄漏率是分析和评价管道破裂事故的前提和基础，将复杂的泄漏率模型进行简化，由简化模型得到的计算值与复杂模型计算值之间的最大偏差为9．3％、基于该简化模型得到的气体喷射扩散模型，其计算值与复杂模型计算值之间的最大偏差为18％．管道发生火焰喷射时，其危险域的计算值与实际值之间的最大偏差只有4m．研究表明，管道破裂危险域是与气体泄漏率的1／2次方成正比，与输气压力的1／2次方成正比，与管径的5／4次方成正比，与破裂管长的1／4次方成反比．

Quantitative Risk Analysis of Hazard Areas Associated with Rupture of High-Pressure Natural-Gas Pipelines

The rupture of high-pressure natural-gas pipeline can threaten people and property in the immediate vicinity of the failure location. It is important to estimate the mass flow rate of possible accidental leakage from the gas pipeline, in order to perform the hazard analysis or the risk management in the gas pipeline system. A simplified model to estimate the leakage rate from a rupture of gas pipeline was proposed. The model had some positive deviations from the theoretical complex equations, and the maximum deviation between them was 9.3%. Based on the simplified model, a gas jet dispersion model was obtained with the maximum deviation of 18% from the theoretical complex equations. When gas jet fire was generated from a ruptured gas pipeline, the mathematical model of hazard area based on the simplified model had the maximum deviation of 4 m from damage areas of real accidents. The results show that hazard area is directly proportional to the leakage rate raised to a haft power, to the operating pressure raised to a half power, to the pipeline diameter raised to five-fourths power, but inversely proportional to the pipeline length raised to a quarter power.