行人机动车冲突模型及其行人过街风险控制应用

基于交通冲突技术理论,对上海市61个时段的5个路段无信号灯控制人行横道处人车冲突过程进行全程录像.以车流量、路段平均车速和行人流量为变量指标,建立非高峰小时(饱和流率小于0.7)的行人车辆冲突次数预测模型及严重冲突次数预测模型,经F检验和T检验,模型整体及参数的置信水平均大于95%.通过χ2检验,证明人车冲突服从负二项分布,从而建立人车冲突概率模型.分别计量我国发达地区行人机动车冲突风险控制效益及冲突控制成本,通过风险经济评价提出人车冲突控制的决策支持方法.

Pedestrian Vehicle Conflict Model and Its Application to Pedestrian Crossing Street Risk Control

Basing on the traffic conflict technique and videotaping 5 uncontrolled pedestrian crosswalk for 61 timing sections, this paper establishes the pedestrian-vehicle conflict model and severe conflict model with the variables of traffic volume, vehicle speed and pedestrian volume. T and F validation is conducted to ensure the modeling confidence lager than 95%. In addition validation is used to prove that the conflict rate contributes to negative binomial distribution. The conflict probability model is therefore built. Calculating the pedestrian vehicle conflict control benefit and cost in the developed area in China, decision support method on conflict control is advised.