| 基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 张绍秋.基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型初探[J].华南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2006,0(1):9-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张绍秋 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学自动化科学与工程学院,广东广州,510641;广州市地方税务局,广东广州,510030 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先运用单位根检验方法验证了税收收入与GDP的非平稳性,进而通过协整检验证明二者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,最后建立了基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型.检验证明,该模型的解释效果和预测精度都较好,可以满足实际工作的需要.
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| 关 键 词： | 税收预测 单整 协整 误差修正模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5463（2006）01-0009-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-11-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-11-24 |
RESEARCH ON TAX PREDICTION ERROR CORRECTION MODEL BASED ON COINTEGRATION THEORY |
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| ZHANG Shao-qiu.RESEARCH ON TAX PREDICTION ERROR CORRECTION MODEL BASED ON COINTEGRATION THEORY[J].Journal of South China Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2006,0(1):9-14. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shao-qiu |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Automation Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China ; 2. Guangzhou Localtax Bureau, Guangzhou 510030, China |
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| Abstract: | First,the nonstationary of the revenue and the GDP are testified by using the Unit Root Test.Then a long-term and stationary relation is proved to exist between revenue and GDP.Finally,a kind of error correction model on taxation forecasting has been established based on the theory of cointegration.This forecasting model is proved to be effective and accurate,and meets the demands in practice. |
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| Keywords: | taxation forecasting integration cointegration error correction model |
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