| 改进灰色马尔可夫模型在湖南省粮食产量预测中的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹邦华,廖基定,黄朝强.改进灰色马尔可夫模型在湖南省粮食产量预测中的研究[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版),2019,33(1):52-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹邦华 廖基定 黄朝强 |
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| 作者单位： | 南华大学 数理学院,湖南 衡阳 421001,南华大学 数理学院,湖南 衡阳 421001,南华大学 数理学院,湖南 衡阳 421001 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过选取湖南省2001年至2017年间的粮食产量数据,采用灰色系统理论、背景值优化、新陈代谢原理、结合马尔可夫模型建立等维新陈代谢的改进无偏灰色马尔可夫模型对湖南省粮食产量进行预测。结果显示:等维新陈代谢的改进无偏灰色马尔可夫模型的预测精度远高于传统的灰色预测模型,该模型更适合中短期粮食产量预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食产量 灰色系统理论 新陈代谢 马尔可夫模型 无偏灰色模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/8/23 0:00:00 |
Study on Improved Grey Markov Model in Grain Yield Prediction in Hunan Province |
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| YIN Banghu,LIAO Jiding and HUANG Chaoqiang.Study on Improved Grey Markov Model in Grain Yield Prediction in Hunan Province[J].Journal of Nanhua University:Science and Technology,2019,33(1):52-57. |
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| Authors: | YIN Banghu LIAO Jiding and HUANG Chaoqiang |
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| Institution: | School of Mathematics and Physics,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan,421001,China,School of Mathematics and Physics,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan,421001,China and School of Mathematics and Physics,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan,421001,China |
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| Abstract: | Through selecting the grain yield data from 2001 to 2017 in Hunan Province,an improved unbiased grey Markov model of equal dimension metabolism was established adopting the grey system theory,background value optimization,metabolism principle combined with Markov model to predict the grain yield in Hunan Province.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the improved unbiased grey Markov model of equal dimension metabolism is much higher than that of the traditional grey model,and the model is more suitable for forecasting grain yield in the short and medium term. |
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| Keywords: | grain yield grey system theory metabolism Markov model unbiased grey model |
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