气候变化对重庆地区降温耗能的影响 (三峡地区资源环境生态研究)

利用1971—2010年的气象观测数据,采用空调度日数作为评估暖季降温耗能的指标,分析了重庆地区1971—2010年间空调度日数、制冷日数的分布和长期变化特征,并评估了气温变化对重庆地区降温耗能的影响。结果表明,重庆各地空调度日数、制冷日数空间差异明显,沿江及河谷一带空调度日数、制冷日数相对高、多,东南部及城口等高海拔地区空调度日数、制冷日数相对低、少;1971—2010年重庆各分区的空调度日数、制冷日数的时间演变与全区平均比较一致,主要经历了先降后升的过程,在20世纪80年代中期转折;气温与降温耗能具有很好的同步性,温度对降温耗能的影响程度随气温的升高而增加;气温若升高1℃,整个暖季(5～9月)、夏季(6～8月)中重庆全区平均的降温耗能将增加56%、46%;在暖季或夏季,气温若升高1℃时降温耗能增加效应量重庆各个分区由大到小依次为:东南部、西部、西南部、中部、主城、东北部;暖季气温若升高1℃时,全区平均制冷日数将增加16 d,主城将增加14 d,其他地区将增加15 d;最后利用平均气温与降温耗能变率建立了一组降温耗能的一元线性回归方程评估模型。文章认为该组评估模型可以用于重庆地区降温耗能变化的定量评估和预估。

Impact of Climate Change on Cooling Energy Consumption in Chongqing

By using the meteorological data from 1971 to 2010,made the cooling degree-days(CDD) as a factor of the cooling energy consumption assessment in the warm season,we analyzed changing characteristics and the attribution of CDD and cooling days in Chongqing region,and assessed the effects of the temperature change on the cooling energy consumption of Chongqing.The results showed that there were significant differences between CDD and cooling days in Chongqing region,CDD and cooling days in regions along the river or in the valleys were more compared to the southeast part and Chengkou county where have a high altitude.In the recent 40 years,the evolution of CDD and cooling days in all districts of Chongqing were basically the same as the average value in this region;they all had experienced the process of rise after the first drop,and a turn in the middle of 1980s.The temperature and the cooling energy consumption had a significant synchronization,the effects of temperature on the cooling energy consumption increased with the higher temperature.The average cooling energy consumption in Chongqing regions in the warm season(May to September) / summer(June to August) will increase by 56% / 46% if the temperature rises 1 ℃.In the warm season or in summer,the cooling energy consumption value in all sections in Chongqing with 1 ℃ higher will be descending in the follow order: southeast,west,southwest,central part,the urban area,the northeast section.If the temperature in the warm season rises 1 ℃,the cooling days in the area would increase by 16 days,the urban area would increase by 14 days,and the other regions would increase by 15 days.Finally,we set a cooling energy consumption assessment model by using the changing rate between the average temperature and the cooling energy consumption,so people can give assessment and quantitative estimates to the cooling energy consumption changes in Chongqing regions.