老证据问题的成因与解决对策探析

老证据问题起源于美国当代哲学家格莱莫尔针对贝叶斯主义所提出的责难,该问题所展示的困境是,贝叶斯认证理论似乎不能解释此前已知的证据如何给受检假说提供新的支持。本文从分析格莱莫尔论证的前提着手,指出他没有恰当区分已知事实与背景知识以及没有留意贝叶斯检验模型对于多理论竞争框架的承诺是导致老证据问题的关键,并在此基础上探讨贝叶斯认证理论处理老证据问题的思路与机制。

An Analysis of the Cause of Problem of Old Evidence and Its Solutions

The problem of old evidence stems from the blame put forward by Glymour for Bayesianism.The thorny part of this problem lies in the fact that Bayesian conformation theory does not seem to explain how previously known evidence has provided new support for the hypothesis under test.This paper starts with analyzing the premises of Glymour’s argument,pointing out that the crux of the matter is that he did not properly distinguish between the already-known facts and background knowledge and did not pay attention to the Bayesian test model’s commitment to the multi-theoretical competition framework,and on this basis discusses the mechanism of Bayesian conformation theory for dealing with the problem of old evidence.