ＥＮＳＯ事件对皖西地区降水的影响

本文根据近60多年皖西地区6个站点的月降水量等资料,研究ENSO事件对皖西地区四季、各月降水的影响以及对事件当年和次年的降水的影响,分析皖西地区旱涝灾害与ENSO事件之间的关联。结果表明：ENSO事件对皖西地区降水量的影响随季节、月份的不同而产生不同的变化；在春夏季,降水量较常年变化为50.4%,而在秋冬季,降水量较常年的变化为-42%。ENSO事件对次年降水也有影响,春季开始的ENSO事件次年年均降雨量减少了23.8%,夏秋季开始的ENSO事件次年春夏季降水量增加了71.1%,而秋冬季减少了30.3%。在ENSO事件当年或次年,皖西地区出现旱涝灾害的可能性约为75%。

The impact of ENSO events on the precipitation in West Anhui

According to the monthly precipitation of six sites in West Anhui in the last six decades, this assay discusses the changes that ENSO events caused to the rainfall of different months and seasons in the ENSO years and the following years and analyses the correlation between ENSO events and disasters of drought and flood. The results show that: the impacts of ENSO events varied as the seasons and months change. In spring and summer, the precipitation was changes by 50.4%,while in autumn and winter, the number is -42%. ENSO events had great difference on the precipitation in next years. In the following years of ENSO events occurred in spring, the annual rainfall was reduced by 23.8%, while in those years next to ENSO years that appeared in summer, the diversification of spring and summer was 71.1% and that of autumn and winter is -30.3%. In the year of ENSO event or the following year, the possibility of drought and flood disasters in West Anhui is about 75%.