三种预测模型的比较与研究

通过对某地区自然灾害造成的损失数据的预测,针对灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测精度问题展开了一系列研究.采用直线插值法将非等时距数据进行等时距变换.通过后验差验算线性回归模型、指数回归模型和GM(1,1)模型的预测等级,验算结果表明指数回归模型的预测等级与GM(1,1)的预测等级都处于最优级,线性回归预测等级为不合格.为进一步研究GM(1,1)和指数回归预测模型的预测精度,将两者的预测相对残差绝对值进行对比分析,结果表明GM(1,1)整体预测精度比指数回归模型略高.

The Comparision and Research of the Three Prediction Models

For studying the prediction accuracy of GM（1,1）model launched a series of research questions by the disaster datas predicting of some area.When the data is nonisochronous we transform them into sochronous data by a straight-line interpolation method.By checking the posterior variance of linear regression model,exponential regression model and GM（1,1）model to judge the level of prediction accuracy,the comparison results show that the exponential regression model and GM（1,1）prediction grade level are in the same level while linear regression forecast level is in lower accuracy.For further study of GM（1,1）prediction accuracy and exponential regression prediction model,the absolute value of both the relative prediction residuals are analyzed,the results show that GM（1,1）overall prediction accuracy is slightly higher than the exponential regression model.