Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models

Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974- 2001 hindcasts obtained from the "Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction" (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June-October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction.     

电离层的朔望月周期变化

 电离层应该存在月球引力引起的朔望月周期变化,但一直没有观察到。2004年6月29日,法国发射了地震电磁监测卫星DEMETER,它是近极地太阳同步圆轨道卫星。本文将DEMETER卫星搭载的朗缪尔探针观测数据分为日侧半轨数据和夜侧半轨数据两组,对两组数据进行重采样和缺失数据填补,组织成日侧轨间信号和夜侧轨间信号,然后分别对这两种信号进行太阳日周期变化的滤除和不同长度周期信号信噪比的计算,进而绘制这两种信号的信噪比-周期变化曲线。在日侧半轨的电子密度、离子密度和电子温度中观察到了清晰的朔望月周期变化,而在夜侧半轨的电子密度、离子密度和电子温度中却没有观察到朔望月周期变化。解释是：月球引力会引起大气的朔望月周期涨落,在日侧半轨,光电离造成电子密度、离子密度、电子温度在高度方向上产生较大的变化梯度,在同一高度太阳同步轨道上运行的DEMETER卫星自然会观测到这种涨落变化,而在夜侧,光电离停止,电子密度、离子密度、电子温度在高度方向上的变化梯度很小,DEMETER卫星自然不会观测到这种涨落变化。