Exendin-4螺旋结构对生物活性及稳定性的影响

针对Exendin-4的螺旋结构特点, 采用去掉螺旋序列、 用3个连续Ala替换螺旋以及Gln13替换为Tyr13的方式对N端α-螺旋及C端α-螺旋进行改造, 设计出4个结构模拟物. 通过圆二光谱和荧光光谱进行结构分析, 结合模拟物生物活性实验, 分析Exendin-4螺旋结构与生物活性的关系. 结果表明：  Exendin-4的N端螺旋比C端螺旋对生物活性影响更大； 在抗二肽基肽酶（DPPⅣ酶）的稳定性实验中, C端螺旋比N端螺旋具有更好维系Exendin-4稳定性的作用； 螺旋结构中Tyr13可作为提高Exendin-4生物活性的重要优化位点.     

基于热中子探测评价裂缝的示踪剂特性研究

针对裂缝热中子示踪探测方法,从中子双组扩散理论入手结合蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法,分析压裂前后地层热中子分布影响因素,并模拟不同类型示踪剂及含量的热中子裂缝响应规律,筛选最佳示踪剂并给出其在支撑剂中含量的上、下限。结果表明:压裂前后热中子计数变化量主要受裂缝宽度和标记支撑剂中示踪剂含量的影响;钆对裂缝宽度变化反应最灵敏,钆元素是作为标记支撑剂的最佳示踪元素;随支撑剂中Gd 2O 3含量的增加,热中子计数率降低,热中子计数变化量D增加;示踪剂中氧化钆的上、下限值随裂缝宽度呈指数降低,且当裂缝宽度为1.0 cm时,Gd 2O 3的质量分数上限为0.68%,下限为0.03%。     

放射治疗剂量分布的Monte Carlo模拟

利用Monte Carlo方法模拟放射治疗剂量分布,改写现有的放射治疗软件DPM,并进行剂量计算。与图形处理方便的Matlab软件相结合,给出直观的显示结果。该方法是一个很有前景的研究方向,因为它既可以获得很快的仿真速度,又能得到直观的仿真结果图形。运行结果表明剂量计算能在1min之内完成,计算速度和精度满足要求。该方法对于提高放射治疗水平具有重要的指导意义和应用价值。     

A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data

A latent class probit model is developed in which it is assumed that the binary data of a particular subject follow a finite mixture of multivariate Bermoulli distributions. An EM algorithm for fitting the model is described and a Monte Carlo procedure for testing the number of latent classes that is required for adequately describing the data is discussed. In the final section, an application of the latent class probit model to some intended purchase data for residential telecommunication devices is reported. Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.”     

Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内照射小器官剂量计算中减方差技巧的比较和应用

在用人体模型计算内照射比吸收分数的Monte Carlo模拟中,对小尺寸、远距离器官的计算结果通常精度不够,可信度差,这就要求采用减方差技巧。该文采用一个简单模型比较了直接模拟和区域粒子分裂-轮盘赌、强迫碰撞与DXTRAN球、指向概率强迫碰撞3种减方差技巧的效果。结果表明指向概率强迫碰撞方法能更有效解决此类问题。利用中国人体数学模型,选择一组典型的源靶器官对,计算了一个实例,得到了可信度高的吸收分数值并体现了指向概率强迫碰撞方法的优越性。     

一个应用于经济领域的基于知识的可灵活配置的智能蒙特卡洛仿真框架

电子商务的发展,促进了经济贸易的全球化、自由化,加剧了市场的竞争与波动,使得经济模型的适应性受到极大的限制.而经济模型是分析和预测经济发展的基础,为了改善这种限制,我们结合XML与知识技术,建立了一个可配置的智能模型仿真框架.我们也把随机数据库融入该框架中,从而实现了可配置的蒙特卡洛仿真.这样,我们极大地提高了经济模型的适应性、扩展性以及智能性.这种框架可以适用于任何能够运行完全参数化模型的仿真引擎.另外,我们还给出了5种分析仿真结果的方法,以帮助研究人员更好的分析、判断与预测.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

AUTO-QUAL-SS水质模式的不确定性分析

本文采用Monte Carlo仿真技术,对AUTO-QUAL-SS模式用于黄浦江水质研究时的不确定性问题,作一些初步的分析讨论。确定了影响模式不确定性的重要因素以及较重要的水质指标DO浓度的不确定性程度。其方法和结论可供水质模式工作者和决策分析人员参考。     

Glauber和Kawasaki动力学下正方格子上伊辛模型居里温度的蒙特卡罗计算

利用蒙特卡罗方法研究正方格子上的伊辛模型的相变问题．讨论了不同翻转方式(随机翻转和顺序翻转)以及不同动力学规则(Glauber动力学和Kawasaki动力学)对正方格子上的伊辛模型的居里温度Tc的影响．结果表明，当Glauber动力学占主要地位时，在两种翻转方式下都可以计算出居里温度Tc的值，当Kawasaki动力学占主要地位时，只能用随机翻转的方法获得居里温度Tc．