寓教于乐 体验教学——体验式教学法探析

以说教为主的教学方式，易使学生感到困乏，无法充分激发学生的学习兴趣。而体验式教学却有效地克服了传统教学一说教教学的弊端，在学生主动、积极的体验中，生动、活泼地完成教学任务，实现教学目标。文章着重阐述了体验式教学在平时授课中的运用及其效果，最后简单地分析了在体验式教学中应该注意的基本问题。     

Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios

The process of scenario construction is not yet well understood. Procedures appeal to the ‘disciplined intuition’ of experts. From a psychological perspective, however, generating scenarios represents a most difficult cognitive task. Two cognitive functions involved in this task are discussed: forward inferences and backward inferences. Whereas forward inferences explore the implications of given options and help to identify potential consequences, backward inferences explore the implications of given goals and help identify potential options. The first process leads to an exploratory scenario, the second to an anticipatory scenario. It is argued that the two approaches, applied to the same problem, result in different scenarios, i.e. scenarios that differ in their elements, their structures, their ranges and their ‘holes’. A bi-directional construction method is suggested that balances the drawbacks implied in using one cognitive strategy only (e.g. forward inference) by using complementarily the other strategy (e.g. backward inference). In contrast to other methods proposed in the literature, this method is theoretically derived and can be tested empirically.     

Prior Information and ARIMA Forecasting

Using the method of ARIMA forecasting with benchmarks developed in this paper, it is possible to obtain forecasts which take into account the historical information of a series, captured by an ARIMA model (Box and Jenkins, 1970), as well as partial prior information about the forecasts. Prior information takes the form of benchmarks. These originate from the advice of experts, from forecasts of an annual econometric model or simply from pessimistic, realistic or optimistic scenarios contemplated by the analyst of the current economic situation. The benchmarks may represent annual levels to be achieved, neighbourhoods to be reached for a given time period, movements to be displayed or more generally any linear criteria to be satisfied by the forecasted values. The forecaster may then exercise his current economic evaluation and judgement to the fullest extent in deriving forecasts, since the laboriousness experienced without a systematic method is avoided.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration

This paper offers a step-by-step analysis of a heuristic approach to scenario planning, taking a managerial perspective. The scenario method is contrasted in general with more traditional planning techniques, which tend to perform less well when faced with high uncertainty and complexity. An actual case involving a manufacturing company is used to illustrate the main steps of the proposed heuristic. Its essence is to identify relevant trends and uncertainties, and blend them into scenarios that are internally consistent. In addition, the scenarios should bound the range of plausible uncertainties and challenge managerial thinking. Links to decision making are examined next, including administrative policies as well as integrative techniques. At the strategic level, a key-success-factor matrix is proposed for integrating scenarios, competitor analysis and strategic vision. At the operational level, Monte Carlo simulation is suggested and illustrated as one useful technique for combining scenario thinking with formal project evaluation (after appropriate translations). The paper concludes with a general discussion of scenario planning, to place it in a broader perspective.     

Forecasting market potential and market penetration of residential water heater load control programs

This paper presents a model which estimates market potential and forecasts market penetration for one demand-side management (DSM) programwater heater load controlin the service territory of Virginia Power Corporation, a large electric utility in the south-eastern United States. Water heater load control is a voluntary program where customers are paid a monthly incentive to allow the utility to shut off power to their electric water heaters during periods of peak demand. Reducing the level of peak demand through DSM programs is one way for utilities to avoid building new power plants. The current total energy (or demand) impact due to a load control program is the sum of the changes in energy (or demand) for all program participants. The projected energy and demand impact due to a load control program is the average change per participant multiplied by the number of participants or adopters of the program. While it is reasonably straightforward to measure the energy savings resulting from shutting off power to a water heater, the more difficult task for planning purposes is forecasting the number of customers who will actually join the program (i.e. the market penetration) for a given incentive. The customer decision process is divided into three stages: eligibility, awareness, and adoption. The responsiveness of market penetration to changes in advertising and incentive amounts is demonstrated. In addition, the impact of changing advertising and incentive amounts on the percentage of aware customers who adopt the program and on that of eligible customers who become aware of the program is estimated. This model can be used by utility planners and managers to forecast the market penetration of both new and existing load control programs. In addition, it can be employed to estimate the impact of various promotion and marketing schemes on both market potential and market penetration.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

基于视域分析模型的永泰庄寨多情景空间组构特征解析

以永泰县丹云乡和城寨为例，基于空间句法理论，利用Depthmap软件中的视域分析模型对平面空间布局进行量化解析.在日常生活、仪式活动和防御行为等多情景下，庄寨内部可行空间的组构呈现动态特征，进而可归纳出庄寨空间平面布局对家族内部伦理规训的表征规律.即可通过空间之间的灵活分隔、开合形成不同的空间联通和布局方式，“身体-空间”耦合变化强化了特定情景下的内外有别、主宾有序等伦理秩序对人的行为规训.