文化隐喻:英雄精神的坠落--从方方小说《过程》谈起

坚守着传统人生价值判断的方方，面对现代化功利性人生价值的冲击时，表现出狭隘的浮躁的愤懑，以至于《过程》的人物结局隐喻出英雄文化守城的失败，而中央电视台“感动中国”节目的播出，又昭示了英雄文化的再度崛起。     

一种FOWG算子及其在模糊AHP中的应用

给出了三角模糊数两两比较的可能度公式 ,研究了它的一些优良性质。基于可能度公式 ,提出了一种模糊有序加权几何平均 (FOWG)算子。利用该算子对模糊AHP中以三角模糊数判断矩阵形式给出的判断信息进行了集结 ,而且 ,基于FOWG算子及互补判断矩阵的排序公式 ,给出了一种对决策方案进行排序和择优的算法。最后通过算例说明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting

The conflicting viewpoints about the quality of judgemental forecasts are examined and a model is proposed that attempts to resolve the conflict. The model sees forecasts as contingent upon the repertory of forecasting strategies that the forecaster brings to the forecasting task, the strategy that he or she selects as a function of the characteristics of the task, and the rigour with which he or she applies the strategy as a function of the motivating characteristics of the environment in which the task is encountered. The implications of differences in subjects' and experimenters' assumptions about which strategies are appropriate in experimental studies are examined, as are the implications of the differences between the motivating aspects of experimental and applied settings on both performance and on the generatizability of the results of experiments to applied judgemental forecasting.     

一致判断矩阵与一致模糊矩阵的关系

通过对一致判断矩阵与一致模糊矩阵的关系研究证明：一致判断矩阵与一致模糊矩阵一样具有中分传递性,符合人类决策思维的一致性;运用模糊层次分析法决策会造成判断信息、一致性及累积优势度的损失．     

综合间接判断信息的排序方法

根据判断矩阵 Ａ＝（ａｉｊ）ｎ×ｎ所提供的间接判断信息 ａｉｌ· ａｉｊ,ａｉ２ ·ａ２ｊ,…,ａｉｎ·ａｎｊ,用几何平 均法■对这些间接判断信息进行综合,构造一致性矩阵Ａ＝（ａｉｊ）ｎ×ｎ,然后给判断矩阵Ａ的求排向量,称这种排序算法为综合间接判断信息法,通过对这种排序方法与方根法、对数最小二乘法、最优传递矩阵法的关系的讨论,指出最优传递矩阵法与综合间接判断信息法所导出的排序向量最接近客观排序,因而是一种最优算法．     

离散型随机变量独立性的判定

】　借助于条件数学期望给出了离散型随机变量相互独立的一个充分必要条件和一个充分条件,其中的充分必要条件推广了已有的结论。     

Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios

The process of scenario construction is not yet well understood. Procedures appeal to the ‘disciplined intuition’ of experts. From a psychological perspective, however, generating scenarios represents a most difficult cognitive task. Two cognitive functions involved in this task are discussed: forward inferences and backward inferences. Whereas forward inferences explore the implications of given options and help to identify potential consequences, backward inferences explore the implications of given goals and help identify potential options. The first process leads to an exploratory scenario, the second to an anticipatory scenario. It is argued that the two approaches, applied to the same problem, result in different scenarios, i.e. scenarios that differ in their elements, their structures, their ranges and their ‘holes’. A bi-directional construction method is suggested that balances the drawbacks implied in using one cognitive strategy only (e.g. forward inference) by using complementarily the other strategy (e.g. backward inference). In contrast to other methods proposed in the literature, this method is theoretically derived and can be tested empirically.     

Forecasting with more than one model

This paper comprises an editorial review for the Special Issue on Combining Forecasts. It gives a background to the current growth of interest in this topic and speculates upon some of the reasons for this popularity. Some of the main methodological issues in practice are also described.     

山区经济主因素排序问题研究

以应用实例研究了运用矩阵柔性管理方法，计算山区经济开发主要因素的排序问题。     

对迹占优矩阵特征值的一种估计法及模糊判断矩阵的建立

对G型迹占优矩阵的特征进行估计，并从另一个角度解决模糊判断矩阵难以建立的问题，同时得到模糊判断矩阵的特征值的估计方法。