Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Pygmy rabbits in the Colorado River drainage

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A new sceloporine lizard from Oaxaca, Mexico

Sceloporus megalepidurus halli, subsp. nov., is described from San José Lachiguiri, Oaxaca, Mexico, from one adult male.     

Mouse ooplasm confers context-specific reprogramming capacity

Enucleated oocytes have the distinctive ability to reprogram somatic nuclei back to totipotency. Here, we investigate genome-scale DNA methylation patterns after nuclear transfer and compare them to the dynamics at fertilization. We identify specific targets for DNA demethylation after nuclear transfer, such as germline-associated promoters, as well as unique limitations that include certain repetitive element classes.     

Selection of microhabitat by the red-backed vole, Clethrionomys gapperi

Clethrionomys gapperi were captured in microhabitats with greater densities of overall cover than at noncapture or random sites within the study area. Variables describing cover density and distance from free water were selected in a discriminant function analysis to differentiate between vole capture and noncapture sites. Vole capture sites had greater amounts of cover within 4 dm above ground surface and were further from standing water than noncapture sites. The preferential use by C. gapperi of microhabitats with greater densities of cover is in agreement with laboratory and field assessments of habitat use reported in the literature.     

Common variants at 12q14 and 12q24 are associated with hippocampal volume

Aging is associated with reductions in hippocampal volume that are accelerated by Alzheimer's disease and vascular risk factors. Our genome-wide association study (GWAS) of dementia-free persons (n = 9,232) identified 46 SNPs at four loci with P values of <4.0 × 10(-7). In two additional samples (n = 2,318), associations were replicated at 12q14 within MSRB3-WIF1 (discovery and replication; rs17178006; P = 5.3 × 10(-11)) and at 12q24 near HRK-FBXW8 (rs7294919; P = 2.9 × 10(-11)). Remaining associations included one SNP at 2q24 within DPP4 (rs6741949; P = 2.9 × 10(-7)) and nine SNPs at 9p33 within ASTN2 (rs7852872; P = 1.0 × 10(-7)); along with the chromosome 12 associations, these loci were also associated with hippocampal volume (P < 0.05) in a third younger, more heterogeneous sample (n = 7,794). The SNP in ASTN2 also showed suggestive association with decline in cognition in a largely independent sample (n = 1,563). These associations implicate genes related to apoptosis (HRK), development (WIF1), oxidative stress (MSR3B), ubiquitination (FBXW8) and neuronal migration (ASTN2), as well as enzymes targeted by new diabetes medications (DPP4), indicating new genetic influences on hippocampal size and possibly the risk of cognitive decline and dementia.     

Site and stand characteristics related to white pine blister rust in high-elevation forests of southern Idaho and western Wyoming

Successful infection of white pine species by white pine blister rust (WPBR) is contingent upon environmental conditions that are favorable to the spread and development of Cronartium ribicola . Site and stand factors related to this process have been studied elsewhere within the distribution of the disease, but few studies have concentrated on the high-elevation white pine forests of southern Idaho and western Wyoming. We found that mean summer precipitation, average tree diameter, and elevation were the most important variables in 3 logistic regression models of WPBR presence and intensity. The models were tested on a randomly chosen portion of our data set. The model with 9 variables correctly predicted categories of low-, moderate-, and high-disease incidence in 79% of cases. The 2 models with fewer variables had lower predictive efficiencies but were more parsimonious and generally easy to measure. The ability to use easily measured or remotely sensed site and stand characteristics to predict WPBR spread or intensification could be an important asset to land managers who need to decide where to focus disease mitigation efforts and predict disease effects on water quality, wildlife habitat, recreation potential, and other land-management activities.     

Temporal activity patterns of Dipodomys ordii population

Temporal activity patterns for Dipodomys ordii were generally bimodal during the summer, with the highest peak occurring during early predawn hours when conditions were optimum for water conservation. Removal of dominant members in the population resulted in a substantial shift in the activity pattern to increased activity during the evening hours.     

Effects of elevation on litter-size variation among lizard populations in the Sceloporus grammicus complex (Phrynosomatidae) in Mexico

We examined the effect of elevation on litter-size variation in viviparous lizards of the Sceloporus grammicus complex in 10 states of Mexico. Female snout&ndash;vent length (SVL) decreased with increasing elevation, and absolute litter size based on embryos also tended to de crease with increasing elevation. However, after controlling for variation in female body size, we found that litter sizes tended to be relatively larger at higher elevation. Elevation therefore appears to influence litter size in these lizards; however, relatively little of the variation is explained by elevation; thus, other factors are likely making substantial contributions to the observed litter-size variation. The S. grammicus complex appears to be a good model system for examining the underlying causes of geographic and elevational variation in lizard life histories. Examinamos el efecto del altitud en la variaci&oacute;n del tama&ntilde;o de camada de las lagartijas viv&iacute;paras del complejo Sceloporus grammicus en 10 estados de M&eacute;xico. La LHC de las hembras disminuy&oacute; con la altitud, y el tama&ntilde;o absoluto de camada, calculado con base en el n&uacute;mero de embriones, tambi&eacute;n tendi&oacute; a disminuir. No obstante, despu&eacute;s de controlar la variaci&oacute;n en el tama&ntilde;o corporal de las hembras, encontramos que los tama&ntilde;os de camada tendieron a ser relativamente m&aacute;s grandes en altitudes mayores. La altitud, por tanto, parece influir en el tama&ntilde;o de camada de estas lagartijas; sin embargo, la altitud explica relativamente poco de la variaci&oacute;n, por lo que, es probable que otros factores contribuyan substancialmente a la variaci&oacute;n observada en el tama&ntilde;o de camada. El complejo S. grammicus parece ser un buen sistema para estudiar las causas fundamentales de la variaci&oacute;n geogr&aacute;fica y altitudinal en la historia de vida de las lagartijas.