Maxwell's role in turning the concept of model into the methodology of modeling

This is a contribution towards a history and philosophy of modeling in its early stages in electromagnetism. In 1873, James Clerk Maxwell (1831–1879) hinted at the methodology of modeling at the end of his Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism. We focus on Maxwell's impact on physicists who immediately followed him, specifically Oliver Lodge (1851–1940) and George Francis FitzGerald (1851–1901). We begin with the role that the scientific concept of model played in the late nineteenth century, as assessed by Ludwig Boltzmann (1844–1906). We then discuss the role of hypothesis as a methodology, the appeal to (dynamical) illustration, and the way Maxwell applied model and working model in his studies of electromagnetism. We show that for Maxwell these key terms were kept distinct, but Lodge did not maintain these distinctions and, in this regard, FitzGerald followed Lodge. Notwithstanding Lodge's influence, Fitzgerald modified Maxwell's theory based on the mechanical model he designed, thereby implicitly taking the first step towards modeling. This methodology consists in drawing consequences from the (mechanical) model to the (electrodynamic) theory and modifying the latter in light of the functioning of the former. At the core of our argument is the thesis that it was a methodological novelty to move from the concept of model to the methodology of modeling. The introduction of modeling as a new methodology into physics in the late nineteenth century was a major event which deserves proper recognition.     

非负张量谱半径上下界的估计不等式

通过张量分析,给出一个具有一般形式的非负张量谱半径的上下界估计不等式,在特别情况下改进了相关非负张量谱半径的估计不等式.     

Little-known and phylogenetically obscure South African estuarine microgastropods (Mollusca: Truncatelloidea) as living animals

Areas of the Knysna estuarine bay in the Western Cape are dominated by three endemic South African truncatelloid microgastropods, temporarily known as ‘Hydrobia’ knysnaensis (Krauss), ‘Assiminea’ capensis (Sowerby) and ‘Assiminea’ globulus Connolly. Although first described 80–170 years ago and present in abundance (up to 100,000 m^?2), they remain surrounded by confusion and still await taxonomic assignment, largely because they appear most atypical members of their groups by virtue of anatomy and/or biogeography and/or habitat. This study contributes in-life perspectives to morphological and phylogenetic analyses known to be on-going. At Knysna, they are syntopic: at least two occurring in >85% and all three in >40% of individual 0.0026 m² samples from their region of dominance. Nevertheless, they tend to greater abundance in divergent microhabitats; ‘A.’ globulus dominating higher tidal levels, and ‘A.’ capensis and ‘Hydrobia’ lower ones; the former especially unvegetated sediment, the latter, if anything, seagrass. Interspecific feeding interactions appear unlikely to be responsible for these patterns, other evidence suggesting that all are maintained below carrying capacity. Field biology of ‘H.’ knysnaensis generally appears equivalent to that of northern-hemisphere intertidal hydrobiids and that of ‘A.’ globulus is typically assimineid, albeit at atypically low shore height. Unlike assimineids, however, ‘A.’ capensis is truly aquatic. The success of these truncatelloids in unusual circumstances may be consequent on the absence from South Africa of other microgastropod groups that fill their niches elsewhere in the southern hemisphere.     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Long-term increases in clutch size in common snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) and diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

Clutch size (CS) is a well-studied life history characteristic, and optimal egg size theory predicts that CS should correlate positively with reproductive investment. Turtles are good subjects for studies of reproductive strategies because few turtle species exhibit parental care; therefore quantifying their short-term reproductive investment is mostly limited to measuring egg size and number. Clutch size is usually reported as an average value for each turtle population, and where CS variation is noted, it is usually attributable to variation in adult body size. In two long-term studies of ecologically dissimilar species we detected a dramatic increase in CS in a common snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina) population and in a diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) population. It is unknown whether these changes are due to either variation in adult body size or resource availability; but the temporal patterns we observed have apparently never been reported previously. These trends remain unexplained and should be explored further.     

矿井索车的优化设计

对矿井索车优化设计中的几个关键性问题进行了探讨，包括驱动轮和尾轮的设计、钢丝绳直径的选择计算、托绳轮间距的确定、绳卡的设计、张紧力和张紧行程的确定、互锁问题的解决等。