On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The New Mexico whiptail, Cnemidophorus neomexicanus (Squamata: Teiidae), in the Great Basin of north central Utah

We report the discovery of established populations of Cnemidophorus neomexicanus in the Salt Lake City area. These are the 1st records of this species in Utah and in the Great Basin and are far from all other known populations of the species. We conclude that C. neomexicanus was introduced in the Salt Lake City area, perhaps within the last 30 years.     

The suppression of star formation by powerful active galactic nuclei

The old, red stars that constitute the bulges of galaxies, and the massive black holes at their centres, are the relics of a period in cosmic history when galaxies formed stars at remarkable rates and active galactic nuclei (AGN) shone brightly as a result of accretion onto black holes. It is widely suspected, but unproved, that the tight correlation between the mass of the black hole and the mass of the stellar bulge results from the AGN quenching the surrounding star formation as it approaches its peak luminosity. X-rays trace emission from AGN unambiguously, whereas powerful star-forming galaxies are usually dust-obscured and are brightest at infrared and submillimetre wavelengths. Here we report submillimetre and X-ray observations that show that rapid star formation was common in the host galaxies of AGN when the Universe was 2-6 billion years old, but that the most vigorous star formation is not observed around black holes above an X-ray luminosity of 10(44) ergs per second. This suppression of star formation in the host galaxy of a powerful AGN is a key prediction of models in which the AGN drives an outflow, expelling the interstellar medium of its host and transforming the galaxy's properties in a brief period of cosmic time.     

Magnetostratigraphy of the Zanda basin in southwest Tibet Plateau and its tectonic implications

The Zanda basin is one of the very important basins at the north slope of the Himalaya Range. Thus the study of the basin strata will provide critical information about the tectonic evolution of the Himalayan Orogenic Belt. 268 oriented block samples were collected in the 750-m-thick sections of the Zanda basin. The characteristic remanent magnetization （ChRM） was isolated that decays linearly to the origin between 500℃ and 690℃for most studied samples. An age range of 9.5-2.6 Ma was estimated from the correlation between our observed polarity column and the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale （GPTS）. The age of the Zanda basin does not support the models that the South Tibetan Detach system （STDS） is one of the basin controlling faults. Given the sedimentological features in the basin and the tectonic features at the north edge of the basin, the Zanda basin was a half graben that was possibly controlled by the Karakorum fault on the northeast.     

Averaging over decision trees

Pruning a decision tree is considered by some researchers to be the most important part of tree building in noisy domains. While there are many approaches to pruning, the alternative of averaging over decision trees has not received as much attention. The basic idea of tree averaging is to produce a weighted sum of decisions. We consider the set of trees used for the averaging process, and how weights should be assigned to each tree in this set. We define the concept of afanned set for a tree, and examine how the Minimum Message Length paradigm of learning may be used to average over decision trees. We perform an empirical evaluation of two averaging approaches, and a Minimum Message Length approach.This work has been carried out with the support of the Defence Research Agency, Malvern.     

dNTP pools imbalance as a signal to initiate apoptosis

Fidelity in DNA synthesis and repair is largely dependent on a balanced supply of deoxynucleotide triphosphate (dNTP) pools. Results from different groups have shown that alterations in dNTP supply result in DNA fragmentation and cell death with characteristics of apoptosis. We have recently shown that in apoptosis driven by deprivation of interleukin-3 (IL-3) in a murine hemopoietic cell line, there is a rapid imbalance in the availability of dNTP that precedes DNA fragmentation. In these cells, dNTP pool balance is closely coupled to the function of the salvage pathway of dNTP synthesis. Apoptosis, induced by treatment of these cells with drugs that inhibit the de novo dNTP synthesis, is prevented when dNTP precursors are supplied through the salvage pathway. IL-3 regulates thymidine kinase activity, suggesting that alterations in dNTP metabolism after IL-3 deprivation could be a relevant event in the commitment of hemopoietic cells to apoptosis.     

Photoperiod manipulation to control diapause in the pink bollworm,Pectinophora gossypiella

Zusammenfassung Im 12-h Kurztag gehaltenePectinophora gossypiella gehen zu 78% in Diapause. Zusätzlich applizierte, einstÜndige Perioden mit 15 Lichtpulsen von je 1 min Dauer reduzieren die Diapauserate. Die besten Resultate ergeben 2 Pulsperioden, je 1,5 h vor und nach der Hellphase appliziert.