Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

BP网络应用于黄河水质的预测研究

利用黄河兰州段水质指标浓度时间序列作为学习样本，选取了DO、COD、氨氮、重金属离子等l0项指标作为输出参数，运用人工神经网络BP模型中的Levenberg—Marguardt优化算法对学习样本优化建模，将优化好的网络的预测结果与实测结果进行了比较，表明BP网络可以很好地用于黄河水质指标值及水质类别的预测。     

Senescence surveillance of pre-malignant hepatocytes limits liver cancer development

Upon the aberrant activation of oncogenes, normal cells can enter the cellular senescence program, a state of stable cell-cycle arrest, which represents an important barrier against tumour development in vivo. Senescent cells communicate with their environment by secreting various cytokines and growth factors, and it was reported that this 'secretory phenotype' can have pro- as well as anti-tumorigenic effects. Here we show that oncogene-induced senescence occurs in otherwise normal murine hepatocytes in vivo. Pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes secrete chemo- and cytokines and are subject to immune-mediated clearance (designated as 'senescence surveillance'), which depends on an intact CD4(+) T-cell-mediated adaptive immune response. Impaired immune surveillance of pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes results in the development of murine hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), thus showing that senescence surveillance is important for tumour suppression in vivo. In accordance with these observations, ras-specific Th1 lymphocytes could be detected in mice, in which oncogene-induced senescence had been triggered by hepatic expression of Nras(G12V). We also found that CD4(+) T cells require monocytes/macrophages to execute the clearance of senescent hepatocytes. Our study indicates that senescence surveillance represents an important extrinsic component of the senescence anti-tumour barrier, and illustrates how the cellular senescence program is involved in tumour immune surveillance by mounting specific immune responses against antigens expressed in pre-malignant senescent cells.     

Mutations of the BRAF gene in human cancer

Cancers arise owing to the accumulation of mutations in critical genes that alter normal programmes of cell proliferation, differentiation and death. As the first stage of a systematic genome-wide screen for these genes, we have prioritized for analysis signalling pathways in which at least one gene is mutated in human cancer. The RAS RAF MEK ERK MAP kinase pathway mediates cellular responses to growth signals. RAS is mutated to an oncogenic form in about 15% of human cancer. The three RAF genes code for cytoplasmic serine/threonine kinases that are regulated by binding RAS. Here we report BRAF somatic missense mutations in 66% of malignant melanomas and at lower frequency in a wide range of human cancers. All mutations are within the kinase domain, with a single substitution (V599E) accounting for 80%. Mutated BRAF proteins have elevated kinase activity and are transforming in NIH3T3 cells. Furthermore, RAS function is not required for the growth of cancer cell lines with the V599E mutation. As BRAF is a serine/threonine kinase that is commonly activated by somatic point mutation in human cancer, it may provide new therapeutic opportunities in malignant melanoma.     

Mutations in genes encoding melanosomal proteins cause pigmentary glaucoma in DBA/2J mice.

Pigmentary glaucoma is a significant cause of human blindness. Abnormally liberated iris pigment and cell debris enter the ocular drainage structures, leading to increased intraocular pressure (IOP) and glaucoma. DBA/2J (D2) mice develop a form of pigmentary glaucoma involving iris pigment dispersion (IPD) and iris stromal atrophy (ISA). Using high-resolution mapping techniques, sequencing and functional genetic tests, we show that IPD and ISA result from mutations in related genes encoding melanosomal proteins. IPD is caused by a premature stop codon mutation in the Gpnmb (GpnmbR150X) gene, as proved by the occurrence of IPD only in D2 mice that are homozygous with respect to GpnmbR150X; otherwise, similar D2 mice that are not homozygous for GpnmbR150X do not develop IPD. ISA is caused by the recessive Tyrp1b mutant allele and rescued by the transgenic introduction of wildtype Tyrp1. We hypothesize that IPD and ISA alter melanosomes, allowing toxic intermediates of pigment production to leak from melanosomes, causing iris disease and subsequent pigmentary glaucoma. This is supported by the rescue of IPD and ISA in D2 eyes with substantially decreased pigment production. These data indicate that pigment production and mutant melanosomal protein genes may contribute to human pigmentary glaucoma. The fact that hypopigmentation profoundly alleviates the D2 disease indicates that therapeutic strategies designed to decrease pigment production may be beneficial in human pigmentary glaucoma.     

The PHYTOCHROME C photoreceptor gene mediates natural variation in flowering and growth responses of Arabidopsis thaliana

Light has an important role in modulating seedling growth and flowering time. We show that allelic variation at the PHYTOCHROME C (PHYC) photoreceptor locus affects both traits in natural populations of A. thaliana. Two functionally distinct PHYC haplotype groups are distributed in a latitudinal cline dependent on FRIGIDA, a locus that together with FLOWERING LOCUS C explains a large portion of the variation in A. thaliana flowering time. In a genome-wide scan for association of 65 loci with latitude, there was an excess of significant P values, indicative of population structure. Nevertheless, PHYC was the most strongly associated locus across 163 strains, suggesting that PHYC alleles are under diversifying selection in A. thaliana. Our work, together with previous findings, suggests that photoreceptor genes are major agents of natural variation in plant flowering and growth response.     

Tungsten isotope evidence that mantle plumes contain no contribution from the Earth's core

Osmium isotope ratios provide important constraints on the sources of ocean-island basalts, but two very different models have been put forward to explain such data. One model interprets (187)Os-enrichments in terms of a component of recycled oceanic crust within the source material. The other model infers that interaction of the mantle with the Earth's outer core produces the isotope anomalies and, as a result of coupled (186)Os-(187)Os anomalies, put time constraints on inner-core formation. Like osmium, tungsten is a siderophile ('iron-loving') element that preferentially partitioned into the Earth's core during core formation but is also 'incompatible' during mantle melting (it preferentially enters the melt phase), which makes it further depleted in the mantle. Tungsten should therefore be a sensitive tracer of core contributions in the source of mantle melts. Here we present high-precision tungsten isotope data from the same set of Hawaiian rocks used to establish the previously interpreted (186)Os-(187)Os anomalies and on selected South African rocks, which have also been proposed to contain a core contribution. None of the samples that we have analysed have a negative tungsten isotope value, as predicted from the core-contribution model. This rules out a simple core-mantle mixing scenario and suggests that the radiogenic osmium in ocean-island basalts can better be explained by the source of such basalts containing a component of recycled crust.