Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Tissue-specific and reversible RNA interference in transgenic mice

Genetically engineered mice provide powerful tools for understanding mammalian gene function. These models traditionally rely on gene overexpression from transgenes or targeted, irreversible gene mutation. By adapting the tetracycline (tet)-responsive system previously used for gene overexpression, we have developed a simple transgenic system to reversibly control endogenous gene expression using RNA interference (RNAi) in mice. Transgenic mice harboring a tet-responsive RNA polymerase II promoter driving a microRNA-based short hairpin RNA targeting the tumor suppressor Trp53 reversibly express short hairpin RNA when crossed with existing mouse strains expressing general or tissue-specific 'tet-on' or 'tet-off' transactivators. Reversible Trp53 knockdown can be achieved in several tissues, and restoring Trp53 expression in lymphomas whose development is promoted by Trp53 knockdown leads to tumor regression. By leaving the target gene unaltered, this approach permits tissue-specific, reversible regulation of endogenous gene expression in vivo, with potential broad application in basic biology and drug target validation.     

Recombination and linkage disequilibrium in Arabidopsis thaliana

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is a major aspect of the organization of genetic variation in natural populations. Here we describe the genome-wide pattern of LD in a sample of 19 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions using 341,602 non-singleton SNPs. LD decays within 10 kb on average, considerably faster than previously estimated. Tag SNP selection algorithms and 'hide-the-SNP' simulations suggest that genome-wide association mapping will require only 40%-50% of the observed SNPs, a reduction similar to estimates in a sample of African Americans. An Affymetrix genotyping array containing 250,000 SNPs has been designed based on these results; we demonstrate that it should have more than adequate coverage for genome-wide association mapping. The extent of LD is highly variable, and we find clear evidence of recombination hotspots, which seem to occur preferentially in intergenic regions. LD also reflects the action of selection, and it is more extensive between nonsynonymous polymorphisms than between synonymous polymorphisms.     

Observation of conformation-specific pathways in the photodissociation of 1-iodopropane ions.

Many molecules can rotate freely around single bonds and thereby interconvert between different conformations, such as gauche and anti 1,2-disubstituted ethane, a classic example of conformational isomerism. Even though rotation occurs rapidly at room temperature, the product selectivity seen in some reactions has been explained by conformation-dependent reaction mechanisms: if reactant molecules differing only in their conformation are located at different positions on the reaction path, they may undergo different reactions. But a direct verification of this effect is difficult, because the energy barrier separating conformational isomers is so low that under ambient conditions reactants with more than one conformation will be present. But by using temperatures low enough to suppress the interconversion between different conformations, gauche-1-iodopropane ions and anti-1-iodopropane ions have been selectively generated. Here we show that the kinetic energy released during the photodissociation of 1-iodopropane ions depends strongly on the conformation of the ions. Thermodynamic arguments and ab initio calculations indicate that this difference in kinetic energy release results from differences in the reaction mechanism, with gauche-1-iodopropane ions forming 2-propyl ions and anti-1-iodopropane ions forming protonated cyclopropane ions. These findings suggest that the well-known concept of conformation selection forms the basis of a simple scheme for reaction control, thus providing in some cases an attractive alternative for more involved schemes that utilize the phase and pulse shape of laser beams to control chemical reactions.     

在线WOM内容和效果的关系:产品知识和相关的影响

以证明在线口传内容对口传效果的影响及收信者的特性的作用为目的。通过已有的研究,把口传内容划分为商品信息和个人经验,把口传效果划分为口传受用和口传行为。以大学生为对象,对MP3购买活动和相关在线口传活动进行了268个问卷调查,并用SPSS 10.0统计法进行了分析。研究结果表明:第一,口传信息的受用度使商品资讯更高,口传行为使个人体验资讯更为受用。第二,商品资讯和个人体验对口传内容的效果(口传受用,口传行为)决定于收信者的产品知识,即对在线的口传内容和口传信息受用的关系有调节作用,而且,对口传行为的影响也有调节效果。最后,关联度变数如先前所设的口传内容和口传效果的关系,对它们的关系有调节作用。     

Efficient and power-awareness query over sensor networks

Sensor networks consisted of low-cost, low-power, multifunctional miniature sensor devices have played an important role in our daily life. Light and humidity monitoring, seismic and animal activity detection, environment and habitat monitoring are the most common applications. However, due to the limited power supply, ordinary query methods and algorithms can not be applied on sensor networks. Queries over sensor networks should be power-aware to guarantee the maximum power savings. The minimal power consumption by avoiding the expensive communication of the redundant sensor nodes is concentrated on. A lot of work have been done to reduce the participated nodes, but none of them have considered the overlapping minimum bounded rectangle (MBR) of sensors which make them impossible to reach the optimization solution. The proposed OMSI-tree and OMR algorithm can efficiently solve this problem by executing a given query only on the sensors involved. Experiments show that there is an obvious improvement compared with TinyDB and other spatial index, adopting the proposed schema and algorithm.     

Applying Petri-Net-Based Reduction Approach for Verifying the Correctness of Workflow Models

0 IntroductionTobadaseyd’s o nintfhoer mflaotiwonof s ywsotrekmss t hhraovueg hbe tehne doervgealnoipzead-tion rather than based ontasks .Duetothistrend,work-flowand business process technology has been applied tovarious applications such as ERP, groupwares , E-mar-ketplaces , E-business etc . When business processes areapplied to these applications ,business processes are de-fined by process designers and business process instancesare executed by workflowengines or workflow manage-ment sys…