Forecasting High‐Frequency Risk Measures

This article proposes intraday high‐frequency risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high‐frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value‐at‐risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per‐time‐unit) VaR and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e. the time‐at‐risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedure for VaR and TaR for each trade or other market microstructure event. Subsequently, we perform a backtesting procedure specifically designed to assess the validity of the VaR and TaR forecasts on irregularly spaced data. The performance of the HFR measure is illustrated in an empirical application for two stocks (Bank of America and Microsoft) and an exchange‐traded fund based on Standard & Poor's 500 index. We show that the intraday HFR forecasts capture accurately the volatility and duration dynamics for these three assets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neural crest regulates myogenesis through the transient activation of NOTCH

How dynamic signalling and extensive tissue rearrangements interact to generate complex patterns and shapes during embryogenesis is poorly understood. Here we characterize the signalling events taking place during early morphogenesis of chick skeletal muscles. We show that muscle progenitors present in somites require the transient activation of NOTCH signalling to undergo terminal differentiation. The NOTCH ligand Delta1 is expressed in a mosaic pattern in neural crest cells that migrate past the somites. Gain and loss of Delta1 function in neural crest modifies NOTCH signalling in somites, which results in delayed or premature myogenesis. Our results indicate that the neural crest regulates early muscle formation by a unique mechanism that relies on the migration of Delta1-expressing neural crest cells to trigger the transient activation of NOTCH signalling in selected muscle progenitors. This dynamic signalling guarantees a balanced and progressive differentiation of the muscle progenitor pool.     

Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years

Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.     

Induction, suppression and requirement of RNA silencing pathways in virulent Agrobacterium tumefaciens infections

Regulation of gene expression through microRNAs (miRNAs) and antiviral defense through small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) are aspects of RNA silencing, a process originally discovered as an unintended consequence of plant transformation by disarmed Agrobacterium tumefaciens strains. Although RNA silencing protects cells against foreign genetic elements, its defensive role against virulent, tumor-inducing bacteria has remained unexplored. Here, we show that siRNAs corresponding to transferred-DNA oncogenes initially accumulate in virulent A. tumefaciens-infected tissues and that RNA interference-deficient plants are hypersusceptible to the pathogen. Successful infection relies on a potent antisilencing state established in tumors whereby siRNA synthesis is specifically inhibited. This inhibition has only modest side effects on the miRNA pathway, shown here to be essential for disease development. The similarities and specificities of the A. tumefaciens RNA silencing interaction are discussed and contrasted with the situation encountered with plant viruses.     

Meteoric smoke fallout over the Holocene epoch revealed by iridium and platinum in Greenland ice

An iridium anomaly at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary layer has been attributed to an extraterrestrial body that struck the Earth some 65 million years ago. It has been suggested that, during this event, the carrier of iridium was probably a micrometre-sized silicate-enclosed aggregate or the nanophase material of the vaporized impactor. But the fate of platinum-group elements (such as iridium) that regularly enter the atmosphere via ablating meteoroids remains largely unknown. Here we report a record of iridium and platinum fluxes on a climatic-cycle timescale, back to 128,000 years ago, from a Greenland ice core. We find that unexpectedly constant fallout of extraterrestrial matter to Greenland occurred during the Holocene, whereas a greatly enhanced input of terrestrial iridium and platinum masked the cosmic flux in the dust-laden atmosphere of the last glacial age. We suggest that nanometre-sized meteoric smoke particles, formed from the recondensation of ablated meteoroids in the atmosphere at altitudes >70 kilometres, are transported into the winter polar vortices by the mesospheric meridional circulation and are preferentially deposited in the polar ice caps. This implies an average global fallout of 14 +/- 5 kilotons per year of meteoric smoke during the Holocene.     

Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates

Divergence times estimated from molecular data often considerably predate the earliest known fossil representatives of the groups studied. For the order Primates, molecular data calibrated with various external fossil dates uniformly suggest a mid-Cretaceous divergence from other placental mammals, some 90 million years (Myr) ago, whereas the oldest known fossil primates are from the basal Eocene epoch (54-55 Myr ago). The common ancestor of primates should be earlier than the oldest known fossils, but adequate quantification is needed to interpret possible discrepancies between molecular and palaeontological estimates. Here we present a new statistical method, based on an estimate of species preservation derived from a model of the diversification pattern, that suggests a Cretaceous last common ancestor of primates, approximately 81.5 Myr ago, close to the initial divergence time inferred from molecular data. It also suggests that no more than 7% of all primate species that have ever existed are known from fossils. The approach unites all the available palaeontological methods of timing evolutionary events: the fossil record, extant species and clade diversification models.     

Clay minerals in surface sediments of the Pearl River drainage basin and their contribution to the South China Sea

Clay minerals have played a significant role in the study of the East Asian monsoon evolution in the South China Sea by being able to track oceanic current variations and to reveal contemporaneous paleoclimaUc changes prevailing in continental source areas. As one of the most important rivers inputting terrigenous matters to the northern South China Sea, the Pearl River was not previously paid attention to from the viewpoint of clay mineralogy. This paper presents a detailed study on clay minerals in surface sediments collected from the Pearl River drainage basin （including all three main channels, various branches, and the Lingdingyang in the estuary） by using the X-ray diffraction （XRD） method. The results indicate that the clay mineral assemblage consists dominantly of kaolinite （35%-65%）, lesser abundance of chlorite （20%-35%） and illite （12%-42%）, and very scare smectite occurrences （generally 〈5%）. Their respective distribution does not present any obvious difference throughout the Pearl River drainage basin. However, downstream the Pearl River to the northern South China Sea, the clay mineral assemblage varies significantly： kaolinite decreases gradually, smecUte and illite increase gradually. Additionally, illite chemistry index steps down and illite crystallinity steps up. These variations indicate the contribution of major kaolinite, lesser illite and chlorite, and very scarce smecUte to the northern South China Sea from the Pearl River drainage basin. The maximum contribution of clay minerals from the Pearl River is 72% to the northern margin and only 15% to the northern slope of the South China Sea. In both glacials and interglacials, kaolinite indicates that the ability of mechanical erosion occurred in the Pearl River drainage basin.