An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Progressive field-state collapse and quantum non-demolition photon counting

The irreversible evolution of a microscopic system under measurement is a central feature of quantum theory. From an initial state generally exhibiting quantum uncertainty in the measured observable, the system is projected into a state in which this observable becomes precisely known. Its value is random, with a probability determined by the initial system's state. The evolution induced by measurement (known as 'state collapse') can be progressive, accumulating the effects of elementary state changes. Here we report the observation of such a step-by-step collapse by non-destructively measuring the photon number of a field stored in a cavity. Atoms behaving as microscopic clocks cross the cavity successively. By measuring the light-induced alterations of the clock rate, information is progressively extracted, until the initially uncertain photon number converges to an integer. The suppression of the photon number spread is demonstrated by correlations between repeated measurements. The procedure illustrates all the postulates of quantum measurement (state collapse, statistical results and repeatability) and should facilitate studies of non-classical fields trapped in cavities.     

PDGF signalling controls age-dependent proliferation in pancreatic β-cells

Determining the signalling pathways that direct tissue expansion is a principal goal of regenerative biology. Vigorous pancreatic β-cell replication in juvenile mice and humans declines with age, and elucidating the basis for this decay may reveal strategies for inducing β-cell expansion, a long-sought goal for diabetes therapy. Here we show that platelet-derived growth factor receptor (Pdgfr) signalling controls age-dependent β-cell proliferation in mouse and human pancreatic islets. With age, declining β-cell Pdgfr levels were accompanied by reductions in β-cell enhancer of zeste homologue 2 (Ezh2) levels and β-cell replication. Conditional inactivation of the Pdgfra gene in β-cells accelerated these changes, preventing mouse neonatal β-cell expansion and adult β-cell regeneration. Targeted human PDGFR-α activation in mouse β-cells stimulated Erk1/2 phosphorylation, leading to Ezh2-dependent expansion of adult β-cells. Adult human islets lack PDGF signalling competence, but exposure of juvenile human islets to PDGF-AA stimulated β-cell proliferation. The discovery of a conserved pathway controlling age-dependent β-cell proliferation indicates new strategies for β-cell expansion.     

Alternative stable states explain unpredictable biological control of Salvinia molesta in Kakadu

Suppression of the invasive plant Salvinia molesta by the salvinia weevil is an iconic example of successful biological control. However, in the billabongs (oxbow lakes) of Kakadu National Park, Australia, control is fitful and incomplete. By fitting a process-based nonlinear model to thirteen-year data sets from four billabongs, here we show that incomplete control can be explained by alternative stable states--one state in which salvinia is suppressed and the other in which salvinia escapes weevil control. The shifts between states are associated with annual flooding events. In some years, high water flow reduces weevil populations, allowing the shift from a controlled to an uncontrolled state; in other years, benign conditions for weevils promote the return shift to the controlled state. In most described ecological examples, transitions between alternative stable states are relatively rare, facilitated by slow-moving environmental changes, such as accumulated nutrient loading or climate change. The billabongs of Kakadu give a different manifestation of alternative stable states that generate complex and seemingly unpredictable dynamics. Because shifts between alternative stable states are stochastic, they present a potential management strategy to maximize effective biological control: when the domain of attraction to the state of salvinia control is approached, augmentation of the weevil population or reduction of the salvinia biomass may allow the lower state to trap the system.     

A disinhibitory microcircuit for associative fear learning in the auditory cortex

Learning causes a change in how information is processed by neuronal circuits. Whereas synaptic plasticity, an important cellular mechanism, has been studied in great detail, we know much less about how learning is implemented at the level of neuronal circuits and, in particular, how interactions between distinct types of neurons within local networks contribute to the process of learning. Here we show that acquisition of associative fear memories depends on the recruitment of a disinhibitory microcircuit in the mouse auditory cortex. Fear-conditioning-associated disinhibition in auditory cortex is driven by foot-shock-mediated cholinergic activation of layer 1 interneurons, in turn generating inhibition of layer 2/3 parvalbumin-positive interneurons. Importantly, pharmacological or optogenetic block of pyramidal neuron disinhibition abolishes fear learning. Together, these data demonstrate that stimulus convergence in the auditory cortex is necessary for associative fear learning to complex tones, define the circuit elements mediating this convergence and suggest that layer-1-mediated disinhibition is an important mechanism underlying learning and information processing in neocortical circuits.     

A single human gene encoding multiple tyrosine hydroxylases with different predicted functional characteristics

Catecholaminergic systems in discrete regions of the brain are thought to be important in affective psychoses, learning and memory, reinforcement and sleep-wake cycle regulation. Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) is the first enzyme in the pathway of catecholamine synthesis. Its importance is reflected in the diversity of the mechanisms that have been described which control its activity; TH levels vary both during development and as a function of the activity of the nervous system. Recently, we deduced the complete amino-acid sequence of rat TH from a complementary DNA clone encoding a functional enzyme. Here we demonstrate that, in man, TH molecules are encoded by at least three distinct messenger RNAs. The expression of these mRNAs varies in different parts of the nervous system. The sequence differences observed are confined to the 5' termini of the messengers and involve alternative splicing events. This variation has clear functional consequences for each putative form of the enzyme and could represent a novel means of regulating catecholamine levels in normal and pathological neurons.     

Retinoic acid coordinates somitogenesis and left-right patterning in vertebrate embryos

A striking feature of the body plan of a majority of animals is bilateral symmetry. Almost nothing is known about the mechanisms controlling the symmetrical arrangement of the left and right body sides during development. Here we report that blocking the production of retinoic acid (RA) in chicken embryos leads to a desynchronization of somite formation between the two embryonic sides, demonstrated by a shortened left segmented region. This defect is linked to a loss of coordination of the segmentation clock oscillations. The lateralization of this defect led us to investigate the relation between somitogenesis and the left-right asymmetry machinery in RA-deficient embryos. Reversal of the situs in chick or mouse embryos lacking RA results in a reversal of the somitogenesis laterality defect. Our data indicate that RA is important in buffering the lateralizing influence of the left-right machinery, thus permitting synchronization of the development of the two embryonic sides.     

A petunia ABC protein controls strigolactone-dependent symbiotic signalling and branching

Strigolactones were originally identified as stimulators of the germination of root-parasitic weeds that pose a serious threat to resource-limited agriculture. They are mostly exuded from roots and function as signalling compounds in the initiation of arbuscular mycorrhizae, which are plant-fungus symbionts with a global effect on carbon and phosphate cycling. Recently, strigolactones were established to be phytohormones that regulate plant shoot architecture by inhibiting the outgrowth of axillary buds. Despite their importance, it is not known how strigolactones are transported. ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters, however, are known to have functions in phytohormone translocation. Here we show that the Petunia hybrida ABC transporter PDR1 has a key role in regulating the development of arbuscular mycorrhizae and axillary branches, by functioning as a cellular strigolactone exporter. P. hybrida pdr1 mutants are defective in strigolactone exudation from their roots, resulting in reduced symbiotic interactions. Above ground, pdr1 mutants have an enhanced branching phenotype, which is indicative of impaired strigolactone allocation. Overexpression of Petunia axillaris PDR1 in Arabidopsis thaliana results in increased tolerance to high concentrations of a synthetic strigolactone, consistent with increased export of strigolactones from the roots. PDR1 is the first known component in strigolactone transport, providing new opportunities for investigating and manipulating strigolactone-dependent processes.     

A complete insect from the Late Devonian period

After terrestrialization, the diversification of arthropods and vertebrates is thought to have occurred in two distinct phases, the first between the Silurian and the Frasnian stages (Late Devonian period) (425-385?million years (Myr) ago), and the second characterized by the emergence of numerous new major taxa, during the Late Carboniferous period (after 345?Myr ago). These two diversification periods bracket the depauperate vertebrate Romer's gap (360-345?Myr ago) and arthropod gap (385-325?Myr ago), which could be due to preservational artefact. Although a recent molecular dating has given an age of 390?Myr for the Holometabola, the record of hexapods during the Early-Middle Devonian (411.5-391?Myr ago, Pragian to Givetian stages) is exceptionally sparse and based on fragmentary remains, which hinders the timing of this diversification. Indeed, although Devonian Archaeognatha are problematic, the Pragian of Scotland has given some Collembola and the incomplete insect Rhyniognatha, with its diagnostic dicondylic, metapterygotan mandibles. The oldest, definitively winged insects are from the Serpukhovian stage (latest Early Carboniferous period). Here we report the first complete Late Devonian insect, which was probably a terrestrial species. Its 'orthopteroid' mandibles are of an omnivorous type, clearly not modified for a solely carnivorous diet. This discovery narrows the 45-Myr gap in the fossil record of Hexapoda, and demonstrates further a first Devonian phase of diversification for the Hexapoda, as in vertebrates, and suggests that the Pterygota diversified before and during Romer's gap.