西湖凹陷西部斜坡带花港组、平湖组储层裂缝发育特征及有效裂缝测井识别

以西湖凹陷西斜坡花港组、平湖组致密砂岩储层为研究对象,通过录井资料分析及岩心和显微薄片观察,研究裂缝的宏观与微观发育特征及其影响因素.结果显示其主要发育层理缝和构造缝.层理缝主要为水平缝和低角度缝,且已被充填;构造缝主要为垂直缝和高角度缝,充填缝和未充填缝各占一半.裂缝的发育受岩性、单层厚度、断裂及地应力场的综合影响.在交会图法(定性)和概率判别法(半定量)研究的基础上,将岩心观察统计结果与常规测井曲线和成像测井成果相对比,综合预测与评价裂缝发育段,认为有利的裂缝发育层段为花港组下段和平湖组中下段.     

Maxwell's role in turning the concept of model into the methodology of modeling

This is a contribution towards a history and philosophy of modeling in its early stages in electromagnetism. In 1873, James Clerk Maxwell (1831–1879) hinted at the methodology of modeling at the end of his Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism. We focus on Maxwell's impact on physicists who immediately followed him, specifically Oliver Lodge (1851–1940) and George Francis FitzGerald (1851–1901). We begin with the role that the scientific concept of model played in the late nineteenth century, as assessed by Ludwig Boltzmann (1844–1906). We then discuss the role of hypothesis as a methodology, the appeal to (dynamical) illustration, and the way Maxwell applied model and working model in his studies of electromagnetism. We show that for Maxwell these key terms were kept distinct, but Lodge did not maintain these distinctions and, in this regard, FitzGerald followed Lodge. Notwithstanding Lodge's influence, Fitzgerald modified Maxwell's theory based on the mechanical model he designed, thereby implicitly taking the first step towards modeling. This methodology consists in drawing consequences from the (mechanical) model to the (electrodynamic) theory and modifying the latter in light of the functioning of the former. At the core of our argument is the thesis that it was a methodological novelty to move from the concept of model to the methodology of modeling. The introduction of modeling as a new methodology into physics in the late nineteenth century was a major event which deserves proper recognition.     

A new twist to the No Miracles Argument for the success of science

J. D. Trout has recently developed a new defense of scientific realism, a new version of the No Miracles Argument. I critically evaluate Trout's novel defense of realism. I argue that Trout's argument for scientific realism and the related explanation for the success of science are self-defeating. In the process of arguing against the traditional realist strategies for explaining the success of science, he inadvertently undermines his own argument.     

Blockage of the NLRP3 inflammasome by MCC950 improves anti-tumor immune responses in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

The NLRP3 inflammasome is a critical innate immune pathway responsible for producing active interleukin (IL)-1β, which is associated with tumor development and immunity. However, the mechanisms regulating the inflammatory microenvironment, tumorigenesis and tumor immunity are unclear. Herein, we show that the NLRP3 inflammasome was over-expressed in human HNSCC tissues and that the IL-1β concentration was increased in the peripheral blood of HNSCC patients. Additionally, elevated NLRP3 inflammasome levels were detected in tumor tissues of Tgfbr1/Pten 2cKO HNSCC mice, and elevated IL-1β levels were detected in the peripheral blood serum, spleen, draining lymph nodes and tumor tissues. Blocking NLRP3 inflammasome activation using MCC950 remarkably reduced IL-1β production in an HNSCC mouse model and reduced the numbers of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), regulatory T cells (Tregs) and tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs). Moreover, inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome activation increased the numbers of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells in HNSCC mice. Notably, the numbers of exhausted PD-1⁺ and Tim3⁺ T cells were significantly reduced. A human HNSCC tissue microarray showed that NLRP3 inflammasome expression was correlated with the expression of CD8 and CD4, the Treg marker Foxp3, the MDSC markers CD11b and CD33, and the TAM markers CD68 and CD163, PD-1 and Tim3. Overall, our results demonstrate that the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway promotes tumorigenesis in HNSCC and inactivation of this pathway delays tumor growth, accompanied by decreased immunosuppressive cell accumulation and an increased number of effector T cells. Thus, inhibition of the tumor microenvironment through the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway may provide a novel approach for HNSCC therapy.     

Little-known and phylogenetically obscure South African estuarine microgastropods (Mollusca: Truncatelloidea) as living animals

Areas of the Knysna estuarine bay in the Western Cape are dominated by three endemic South African truncatelloid microgastropods, temporarily known as ‘Hydrobia’ knysnaensis (Krauss), ‘Assiminea’ capensis (Sowerby) and ‘Assiminea’ globulus Connolly. Although first described 80–170 years ago and present in abundance (up to 100,000 m^?2), they remain surrounded by confusion and still await taxonomic assignment, largely because they appear most atypical members of their groups by virtue of anatomy and/or biogeography and/or habitat. This study contributes in-life perspectives to morphological and phylogenetic analyses known to be on-going. At Knysna, they are syntopic: at least two occurring in >85% and all three in >40% of individual 0.0026 m² samples from their region of dominance. Nevertheless, they tend to greater abundance in divergent microhabitats; ‘A.’ globulus dominating higher tidal levels, and ‘A.’ capensis and ‘Hydrobia’ lower ones; the former especially unvegetated sediment, the latter, if anything, seagrass. Interspecific feeding interactions appear unlikely to be responsible for these patterns, other evidence suggesting that all are maintained below carrying capacity. Field biology of ‘H.’ knysnaensis generally appears equivalent to that of northern-hemisphere intertidal hydrobiids and that of ‘A.’ globulus is typically assimineid, albeit at atypically low shore height. Unlike assimineids, however, ‘A.’ capensis is truly aquatic. The success of these truncatelloids in unusual circumstances may be consequent on the absence from South Africa of other microgastropod groups that fill their niches elsewhere in the southern hemisphere.     

财政性科技经费监管体系探析

我国初步建立了财政性科技经费监管体系,但是在监督主体、监督制度等方面还存在缺陷,科技经费监督出现诸多问题。建立要加强宏观层面的统筹规划,建立由政府、承担单位和外部主体上下联动、横向联合的立体监督体系。     

Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

利用SRTM数据修测高山区地貌的探讨

在高海拔区域测制地形图,如青藏高原地区,所获取的遥感影像局部存在着大范围的高山阴影或云雪覆盖,造成立体观测地貌困难的现象,探讨应用SRTM数据对这类特殊区域地貌进行修测补绘。介绍了数据处理的作业过程,并对实验区SRTM与SPOT5影像立体测图成果进行实验对比分析,成果符合要求。     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.