Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

蕴涵环交换性的某些多项恒等式

设ｍ＞１，ｎ，ｐ，ｑ，ｒ，ｓ均为正整数，Ｒ是一个具有单位元１的环．证明了：如果Ｒ中的任意ｘ，ｙ满足且Ｒ具有Ｑ（ｍ）性质，则Ｒ是一个交换环．此外，在适当的条件下确立了Ｒ的交换性．     

The role of dyking and fault control in the rapid onset of eruption at Chaitén volcano, Chile

Rhyolite is the most viscous of liquid magmas, so it was surprising that on 2?May 2008 at Chaitén Volcano, located in Chile's southern Andean volcanic zone, rhyolitic magma migrated from more than 5?km depth in less than 4?hours (ref.?1) and erupted explosively with only two days of detected precursory seismic activity. The last major rhyolite eruption before that at Chaitén was the largest volcanic eruption in the twentieth century, at Novarupta volcano, Alaska, in 1912. Because of the historically rare and explosive nature of rhyolite eruptions and because of the surprisingly short warning before the eruption of the Chaitén volcano, any information about the workings of the magmatic system at Chaitén, and rhyolitic systems in general, is important from both the scientific and hazard perspectives. Here we present surface deformation data related to the Chaitén eruption based on radar interferometry observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) DAICHI (ALOS) satellite. The data on this explosive rhyolite eruption indicate that the rapid ascent of rhyolite occurred through dyking and that melt segregation and magma storage were controlled by existing faults.     

Programming the magnitude and persistence of antibody responses with innate immunity

Many successful vaccines induce persistent antibody responses that can last a lifetime. The mechanisms by which they do so remain unclear, but emerging evidence indicates that they activate dendritic cells via Toll-like receptors (TLRs). For example, the yellow fever vaccine YF-17D, one of the most successful empiric vaccines ever developed, activates dendritic cells via multiple TLRs to stimulate proinflammatory cytokines. Triggering specific combinations of TLRs in dendritic cells can induce synergistic production of cytokines, which results in enhanced T-cell responses, but its impact on antibody responses remain unknown. Learning the critical parameters of innate immunity that program such antibody responses remains a major challenge in vaccinology. Here we demonstrate that immunization of mice with synthetic nanoparticles containing antigens plus ligands that signal through TLR4 and TLR7 induces synergistic increases in antigen-specific, neutralizing antibodies compared to immunization with nanoparticles containing antigens plus a single TLR ligand. Consistent with this there was enhanced persistence of germinal centres and of plasma-cell responses, which persisted in the lymph nodes for >1.5 years. Surprisingly, there was no enhancement of the early short-lived plasma-cell response relative to that observed with single TLR ligands. Molecular profiling of activated B cells, isolated 7 days after immunization, indicated that there was early programming towards B-cell memory. Antibody responses were dependent on direct triggering of both TLRs on B cells and dendritic cells, as well as on T-cell help. Immunization protected completely against lethal avian and swine influenza virus strains in mice, and induced robust immunity against pandemic H1N1 influenza in rhesus macaques.     

一类周期拟环的结构

本文得到了拟环满足条件ｘｙ＝ｘｙ￣（ｎ（ｘ，ｙ）ｘ或ｘｙ＝ｙｘ￣（ｎ（ｘ，ｙ）ｙ的分解定理。     

MHC polymorphism pre-dating speciation

Two features distinguish the polymorphism of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) loci from that of other loci: its high diversity and the large genetic distance between MHC alleles. More than 100 alleles exist in natural populations in the mouse at each of the functional class I and class II alleles, all alleles occurring at frequencies that cannot be explained by recurrent mutations. Some of the alleles differ by approximately 70 nucleotides in the coding region alone and some of the products of the allelic genes differ by more than 50 amino acids. It has generally been assumed that these differences accumulated after species inception. Here, we present evidence for an alternative explanation of the origin of MHC polymorphism: a large part of the MHC polymorphism pre-dates speciation and is passed on from species to species. We describe allelic differences that must have arisen before the separation of mice and rats from a common ancestor more than 10 million years ago.