Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pragmatic pluralism—An explication

The focus with which the paper is concerned is the process or task of intervention and, more specifically, the exploration of three (overlapping and interacting) questions pertinent to those who would intervene:

What is to be done?

How shall we decide what to do?

What can guide our actions?

In terms of what we will describe as pragmatic pluralism (our response to these questions), we intend this to be read in several different ways and on several different levels. Illustrating the discussion with examples from a number of different case studies, we will talk about pluralism in each of the following features:

in the use of specific methods/techniques

in the role(s) of the interventionists

in the modes of representation employed

in the use of different rationalities

in the ‘nature’ of the client

     

Biotechnology regulation: rules for freed organisms planned

The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to regulate the biotechnology industry, claiming authority under the provisions of the Federal Toxic Substances Control Act (TOSCA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). In the agency's view, the products of recombinant DNA techniques can be compared to new chemicals or pesticides, both of which fall under EPA jurisdiction. Although a legal challenge to EPA's authority in this area is expected from industry, the agency hopes to issue its first set of draft regulations in early 1984.     

Serum enzyme activities in the African elephant (Loxodonta africana)

Summary The serum activities of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, -hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase and creatine phosphokinase have been measured in the African elephant. In general, the values were broadly comparable with those of man except that alanine aminotransferase was much lower and creatine phosphokinase higher. No variation due to age, sex, season or location was observed.     

Heat Transfer Enhancement Due to Marangoni Flow Around Moving Bubbles During Nucleate Boiling

Introduction Nucleate boiling has always been an important heat transfer mechanism in many fields, such as energy utilization, manufacturing processes, and chemical processing and nucleate boiling continues to find new applications in many new areas, such…     

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms--such as corals and some plankton--will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean-carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.     

Recombination and linkage disequilibrium in Arabidopsis thaliana

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is a major aspect of the organization of genetic variation in natural populations. Here we describe the genome-wide pattern of LD in a sample of 19 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions using 341,602 non-singleton SNPs. LD decays within 10 kb on average, considerably faster than previously estimated. Tag SNP selection algorithms and 'hide-the-SNP' simulations suggest that genome-wide association mapping will require only 40%-50% of the observed SNPs, a reduction similar to estimates in a sample of African Americans. An Affymetrix genotyping array containing 250,000 SNPs has been designed based on these results; we demonstrate that it should have more than adequate coverage for genome-wide association mapping. The extent of LD is highly variable, and we find clear evidence of recombination hotspots, which seem to occur preferentially in intergenic regions. LD also reflects the action of selection, and it is more extensive between nonsynonymous polymorphisms than between synonymous polymorphisms.     

Association scan of 14,500 nonsynonymous SNPs in four diseases identifies autoimmunity variants

We have genotyped 14,436 nonsynonymous SNPs (nsSNPs) and 897 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tag SNPs from 1,000 independent cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and breast cancer (BC). Comparing these data against a common control dataset derived from 1,500 randomly selected healthy British individuals, we report initial association and independent replication in a North American sample of two new loci related to ankylosing spondylitis, ARTS1 and IL23R, and confirmation of the previously reported association of AITD with TSHR and FCRL3. These findings, enabled in part by increased statistical power resulting from the expansion of the control reference group to include individuals from the other disease groups, highlight notable new possibilities for autoimmune regulation and suggest that IL23R may be a common susceptibility factor for the major 'seronegative' diseases.