The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gelation of particles with short-range attraction

Nanoscale or colloidal particles are important in many realms of science and technology. They can dramatically change the properties of materials, imparting solid-like behaviour to a wide variety of complex fluids. This behaviour arises when particles aggregate to form mesoscopic clusters and networks. The essential component leading to aggregation is an interparticle attraction, which can be generated by many physical and chemical mechanisms. In the limit of irreversible aggregation, infinitely strong interparticle bonds lead to diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA). This is understood as a purely kinetic phenomenon that can form solid-like gels at arbitrarily low particle volume fraction. Far more important technologically are systems with weaker attractions, where gel formation requires higher volume fractions. Numerous scenarios for gelation have been proposed, including DLCA, kinetic or dynamic arrest, phase separation, percolation and jamming. No consensus has emerged and, despite its ubiquity and significance, gelation is far from understood-even the location of the gelation phase boundary is not agreed on. Here we report experiments showing that gelation of spherical particles with isotropic, short-range attractions is initiated by spinodal decomposition; this thermodynamic instability triggers the formation of density fluctuations, leading to spanning clusters that dynamically arrest to create a gel. This simple picture of gelation does not depend on microscopic system-specific details, and should thus apply broadly to any particle system with short-range attractions. Our results suggest that gelation-often considered a purely kinetic phenomenon-is in fact a direct consequence of equilibrium liquid-gas phase separation. Without exception, we observe gelation in all of our samples predicted by theory and simulation to phase-separate; this suggests that it is phase separation, not percolation, that corresponds to gelation in models for attractive spheres.     

Identification and expansion of human colon-cancer-initiating cells

Colon carcinoma is the second most common cause of death from cancer. The isolation and characterization of tumorigenic colon cancer cells may help to devise novel diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Although there is increasing evidence that a rare population of undifferentiated cells is responsible for tumour formation and maintenance, this has not been explored for colorectal cancer. Here, we show that tumorigenic cells in colon cancer are included in the high-density CD133+ population, which accounts for about 2.5% of the tumour cells. Subcutaneous injection of colon cancer CD133+ cells readily reproduced the original tumour in immunodeficient mice, whereas CD133- cells did not form tumours. Such tumours were serially transplanted for several generations, in each of which we observed progressively faster tumour growth without significant phenotypic alterations. Unlike CD133- cells, CD133+ colon cancer cells grew exponentially for more than one year in vitro as undifferentiated tumour spheres in serum-free medium, maintaining the ability to engraft and reproduce the same morphological and antigenic pattern of the original tumour. We conclude that colorectal cancer is created and propagated by a small number of undifferentiated tumorigenic CD133+ cells, which should therefore be the target of future therapies.     

The bryozoan genus Conopeum (Electridae) in New Zealand,with description of a new species and discussion of the morphological and genetic characters of Conopeum seurati (Canu, 1928)

ABSTRACT

The status of Conopeum Gray, 1848 in New Zealand is clarified, confirming the presence of three living species – one a naturalised alien, one new to science, and a third that is also known in the Pleistocene. Conopeum seurati (Canu, 1928), a Mediterranean-European species, is naturalised at three localities in New Zealand – Opua, Whangarei Harbour and Whanganui Inlet. Conopeum antipodum n. sp., previously confused with C. seurati, is an estuarine species distributed from Kaipara Harbour to Lyttelton Harbour and is also found in Te Whanga Lagoon at Chatham Island (all New Zealand localities). Conopeum oretiensis Uttley, 1951, first described from Foveaux Strait, is known as far north as Kaipara and Manukau Harbours and is known as a Pleistocene fossil from Napier, New Zealand. There is one other solely fossil New Zealand species – Plio-Pleistocene Electra ongleyi Brown, 1952 is transferred to Conopeum. Sequence data from the 18SrDNA locus confirm that Conopeum antipodum n. sp. is resolved within Conopeum and is distinct from C. seurati.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:4FED6730-1C70-4420-B1DA-F1D9046221DF http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org.pub:5C130A99-0869-44A2-885C-338005FBCE07     

TACI is mutant in common variable immunodeficiency and IgA deficiency

The tumor necrosis factor receptor family member TACI (transmembrane activator and calcium-modulator and cyclophilin ligand interactor) mediates isotype switching in B cells. We found that 4 of 19 unrelated individuals with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) and 1 of 16 individuals with IgA deficiency (IgAD) had a missense mutation in one allele of TNFRSF13B (encoding TACI). One of the four individuals with CVID had a single nucleotide insertion in the other TNFRSF13B allele. None of these mutations were present in 50 healthy subjects. TNFRSF13B mutations cosegregated with the phenotype of CVID or IgAD in family members of four index individuals that we studied. B cells from individuals with TACI mutations expressed TACI but did not produce IgG and IgA in response to the TACI ligand APRIL, probably reflecting impaired isotype switching. These results suggest that TACI mutations can result in CVID and IgAD.     

KIF1Bβ transports dendritically localized mRNPs in neurons and is recruited to synapses in an activity-dependent manner

KIF1Bβ is a kinesin-like, microtubule-based molecular motor protein involved in anterograde axonal vesicular transport in vertebrate and invertebrate neurons. Certain KIF1Bβ isoforms have been implicated in different forms of human neurodegenerative disease, with characterization of their functional integration and regulation in the context of synaptic signaling still ongoing. Here, we characterize human KIF1Bβ (isoform NM015074), whose expression we show to be developmentally regulated and elevated in cortical areas of the CNS (including the motor cortex), in the hippocampus, and in spinal motor neurons. KIF1Bβ localizes to the cell body, axon, and dendrites, overlapping with synaptic-vesicle and postsynaptic-density structures. Correspondingly, in purified cortical synaptoneurosomes, KIF1Bβ is enriched in both pre- and postsynaptic structures, forming detergent-resistant complexes. Interestingly, KIF1Bβ forms RNA–protein complexes, containing the dendritically localized Arc and Calmodulin mRNAs, proteins previously shown to be part of RNA transport granules such as Purα, FMRP and FXR2P, and motor protein KIF3A, as well as Calmodulin. The interaction between KIF1Bβ and Calmodulin is Ca⁺²-dependent and takes place through a domain mapped at the carboxy-terminal tail of the motor. Live imaging of cortical neurons reveals active movement by KIF1Bβ at dendritic processes, suggesting that it mediates the transport of dendritically localized mRNAs. Finally, we show that synaptic recruitment of KIF1Bβ is activity-dependent and increased by stimulation of metabotropic or ionotropic glutamate receptors. The activity-dependent synaptic recruitment of KIF1Bβ, its interaction with Ca²⁺ sensor Calmodulin, and its new role as a dendritic motor of ribonucleoprotein complexes provide a novel basis for understanding the concerted co-ordination of motor protein mobilization and synaptic signaling pathways.     

Additional new species of Grouvellinus Champion 1923 (Insecta,Coleoptera, Elmidae) discovered by citizen scientists and DNA barcoded in the field applying a novel MinION-based workflow

ABSTRACT

Four new species, Grouvellinus nigerquadratus sp. nov., G. cruxniger sp. nov., G. luciaensis sp. nov., and G. borneensis sp. nov., are described from Borneo and illustrated in detail. Two additional species of the genus which remain undescribed are briefly diagnosed. The material was collected during Taxon Expeditions’ field course which involved citizen scientists, students and taxonomists. Specimens were collected at altitudes between 270 m and 750 m above sea level using fine-meshed hand-nets and blacklight traps. The morphological species delimitation based on morphology was supplemented and congruent with mtDNA sequences which are the first DNA barcodes for the genus from Borneo. They were obtained in the field using a newly developed rapid and accurate MinION-based workflow. The inter – and intraspecific genetic distances and the problems regarding cryptic species delimitation are discussed.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:4B1D0F3D-B303-46A5-86B4-C23454192327