Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Variations in Variation and Selection: The Ubiquity of the Variation-and-Selective-Retention Ratchet in Emergent Organizational Complexity, Part II: Quantum Field Theory

If the general arguments concerning theinvolvement of variation and selection inexplanations of ``fit'' are valid, then variationand selection explanations should beappropriate, or at least potentiallyappropriate, outside the paradigm historisticdomains of biology and knowledge. In thisdiscussion, I wish to indicate some potentialroles for variation and selection infoundational physics – specifically inquantum field theory. I will not be attemptingany full coherent ontology for quantum fieldtheory – none currently exists, and none islikely for at least the short term future. Instead, I wish to engage in some partiallyspeculative interpretations of some interestingresults in this area with the aim ofdemonstrating that variation and selectionnotions might play a role even here. Ifvariation and selection can survive in even asinhospitable and non-paradigmatic a terrain asfoundational physics, then it can surviveanywhere.     

The influence of chronic nicotine treatment on stress-induced gastric ulceration and emptying rate in rats.

Ten-day treatment with nicotine (5, 25 or 50 micrograms/ml drinking water) dose-dependently intensified gastric ulceration induced by cold-restraint, and emptying rate. Stomach contractions produced by graded doses of bethanechol i.v. were elevated further by nicotine treatment. It is suggested that chronic nicotine administration produces hypersensitivity of the gastric muscarinic receptors; stomach hypermotility contributes to the ulcer-worsening action of the alkaloid.     

Population-based resequencing of ANGPTL4 uncovers variations that reduce triglycerides and increase HDL

Resequencing genes provides the opportunity to assess the full spectrum of variants that influence complex traits. Here we report the first application of resequencing to a large population (n = 3,551) to examine the role of the adipokine ANGPTL4 in lipid metabolism. Nonsynonymous variants in ANGPTL4 were more prevalent in individuals with triglyceride levels in the lowest quartile than in individuals with levels in the highest quartile (P = 0.016). One variant (E40K), present in approximately 3% of European Americans, was associated with significantly lower plasma levels of triglyceride and higher levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in European Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and in Danes from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous variants was higher in European Americans than in African Americans (4:1 versus 1.3:1), suggesting population-specific relaxation of purifying selection. Thus, resequencing of ANGPTL4 in a multiethnic population allowed analysis of the phenotypic effects of both rare and common variants while taking advantage of genetic variation arising from ethnic differences in population history.     

Alcohol dehydrogenase 2 is a major hepatic enzyme for human retinol metabolism

The metabolism of all-trans- and 9-cis-retinol/ retinaldehyde has been investigated with focus on the activities of human, mouse and rat alcohol dehydrogenase 2 (ADH2), an intriguing enzyme with apparently different functions in human and rodents. Kinetic constants were determined with an HPLC method and a structural approach was implemented by in silico substrate dockings. For human ADH2, the determined K_m values ranged from 0.05 to 0.3 μM and k_cat values from 2.3 to 17.6 min⁻¹, while the catalytic efficiency for 9-cis-retinol showed the highest value for any substrate. In contrast, poor activities were detected for the rodent enzymes. A mouse ADH2 mutant (ADH2Pro47His) was studied that resembles the human ADH2 setup. This mutation increased the retinoid activity up to 100-fold. The K_m values of human ADH2 are the lowest among all known human retinol dehydrogenases, which clearly support a role in hepatic retinol oxidation at physiological concentrations. Received 12 October 2006; received after revision 6 December 2006; accepted 8 January 2007