Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century despite more intensive human water consumption. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven inter-annual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.     

Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch

In the present-day climate, surface water salinities are low in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and increase towards the eastern part of the basin. The salinity of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean is thought to be controlled by a combination of atmospheric convection, precipitation, evaporation and ocean dynamics, and on interannual timescales significant variability is associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation cycles. However, little is known about the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of centuries to millennia. Here we combine oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from three sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean to reconstruct Holocene sea surface temperatures and salinities in the region. We find a decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degrees C over the past 10,000 yr, whereas sea surface salinities decreased by approximately 1.5 practical salinity units. Our data imply either that the Pacific basin as a whole has become progressively less salty or that the present salinity gradient along the Equator has developed relatively recently.     

Increased dissolved oxygen in Pacific intermediate waters due to lower rates of carbon oxidation in sediments

Concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the ocean seem to correlate well with climate instabilities over the past 100,000 years. For example, the concentration of dissolved oxygen in Pacific intermediate waters was considerably higher during Pleistocene glacial periods than it is today. This has been inferred from the presence of bioturbated sediments, implying that oxygen levels were sufficient for burrowing organisms to live. Today, basins in the northeastern Pacific Ocean are floored by laminated sediments implying lower oxygen levels, which may be explained by reduced ventilation. Here we report a recent return to bioturbated sediments in the northeastern Pacific Ocean since the late 1970s. From the carbon isotope composition of benthic foraminifers living in the sediment, we infer a twofold decrease in the carbon oxidation rate occurring within sediments, equivalent to an increase in dissolved oxygen concentration of 15-20 micromoles per litre. These changes, at the edges of the Santa Barbara, Santa Monica and Alfonso basins, are coincident with a change in North Pacific climate which has reduced upwelling by 20-30% and increased sea surface temperatures by 1.5-3 degrees C. This suggests that climate effects on surface productivity, reducing the supply organic matter to sediments, may have had a greater effect on benthic oxygen levels than changes in ocean circulation patterns.     

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models. Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.     

RNA sequencing of pancreatic circulating tumour cells implicates WNT signalling in metastasis

Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) shed into blood from primary cancers include putative precursors that initiate distal metastases. Although these cells are extraordinarily rare, they may identify cellular pathways contributing to the blood-borne dissemination of cancer. Here, we adapted a microfluidic device for efficient capture of CTCs from an endogenous mouse pancreatic cancer model and subjected CTCs to single-molecule RNA sequencing, identifying Wnt2 as a candidate gene enriched in CTCs. Expression of WNT2 in pancreatic cancer cells suppresses anoikis, enhances anchorage-independent sphere formation, and increases metastatic propensity in vivo. This effect is correlated with fibronectin upregulation and suppressed by inhibition of MAP3K7 (also known as TAK1) kinase. In humans, formation of non-adherent tumour spheres by pancreatic cancer cells is associated with upregulation of multiple WNT genes, and pancreatic CTCs revealed enrichment for WNT signalling in 5 out of 11 cases. Thus, molecular analysis of CTCs may identify candidate therapeutic targets to prevent the distal spread of cancer.     

Magnitude and timing of temperature change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during deglaciation

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific region have a strong influence on global heat and water vapour transport and thus constitute an important component of the climate system. Changes in sea surface temperatures and convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are thought to be responsible for the interannual to decadal climate variability observed in extra-tropical regions, but the role of the tropics in climate changes on millennial and orbital timescales is less clear. Here we analyse oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of foraminiferal shells from the Makassar strait in the heart of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, to obtain synchronous estimates of sea surface temperatures and ice volume. We find that sea surface temperatures increased by 3.5-4.0 degrees C during the last two glacial-interglacial transitions, synchronous with the global increase in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic warming, but the temperature increase occurred 2,000-3,000 years before the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets melted. Our observations suggest that the tropical Pacific region plays an important role in driving glacial-interglacial cycles, possibly through a system similar to how El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation regulates the poleward flux of heat and water vapour.