Estimates of true birth order for Scotland, 1945-1999

Over the last three decades fertility in Scotland, as measured by the total fertility rate (TFR), has moved from being higher than in England and Wales, to being lower. The annual number of births in Scotland has declined so that in the mid-1990s low fertility became the main driver of the overall population decline that Scotland has been experiencing since 1974. Analysis of fertility by birth order is instrumental in gaining an understanding of past and future fertility trends. Until the rise in births outside marriage in the 1980s data from registration could be used as a proxy for true birth order. However, because birth order is not collected for births outside marriage true birth order now has to be estimated. This article presents the first official estimates of true birth order for Scotland. The construction of these estimates based on a modified version of the method used for England and Wales is discussed. This article also presents analysis relating births by true birth order estimate to the population of women by parity on a cohort basis, and makes comparisons with England and Wales.     

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

Biochemical defects in ABCR protein variants associated with human retinopathies

Mutations in the gene encoding ABCR (ABCA4), a photoreceptor-specific ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter, are responsible for autosomal recessive Stargardt disease (STGD), an early onset macular degeneration, and some forms of autosomal recessive cone-rod dystrophy and autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa. Heterozygosity for ABCA4 mutations may also represent a risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), although this idea is controversial. An ongoing challenge in the analysis of ABCA4-based retinopathies arises from the observation that most of the ABCA4 sequence variants identified so far are missense mutations that are rare in both patient and control populations. With the current sample size of most sequence variants, one cannot determine statistically whether a particular sequence variant is pathogenic or neutral. A related challenge is to determine the degree to which each pathogenic variant impairs ABCR function, as genotype-phenotype analyses indicate that age of onset and disease severity correlate with different ABCA4 alleles. To address these questions, we performed a functional analysis of human ABCR and its variants. These experiments reveal a wide spectrum of biochemical defects in these variants and provide insight into the transport mechanism of ABCR.     

An analysis of patient register data in the Longitudinal Study - what does it tell us about the quality of the data?

This article uses data for members of the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) from both Census 2001 enumeration and patient registrations "frozen" on census day 2001 from the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) to examine potential sources of difference in area of usual residence.Overall 95.7 per cent of ONS LS members enumerated at census resided in the same area as recorded on the NHSCR data. Where areas differed, or the ONS LS member was not on the NHSCR on census day, subsequent NHSCR records were examined. Records flagged on the NHSCR as ONS LS members in England and Wales on census day but with no census record were also investigated.     

Synthesis and cytokinin activity of the 3-, 7- and 9-methyl derivatives of zeatin

Zusammenfassung Die 3-, 7- und 9-Monomethylderivative des Cytokinins Zeatin wurden hergestellt und ihre Aktivität in der Karottenwurzel nachgewiesen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Nukleotidderivative nicht not-wendige Stufen im Wirkungsmechanismus darstellen.     

Phosphorylated derivatives of the cytokinins,zeatin and its 9-β-d-ribofuranoside,naturally occurring adenine and adenosine derivatives with plant cell-division promoting activity

Zusammenfassung Zeatin-ribosid-5-phosphat wurde einerseits durch Umsetzung von 6-Chlorpurin-ribotid mit trans-4-Amino-2-methylbuten-(2)-ol-(1) und andererseits durch Behandlung von Isopropyliden-zeatin-ribosid mit Pyrophosphorylchlorid hergestellt. Die Phosphorylierung des Isopropylidenderivats in Pyridin ergab ein Allylpyridiniumderivat, dessen Struktur spektroskopisch und durch Abbau bewiesen wurde.     

A cross country review of the validation and/or adjustment of census data

This article reviews existing procedures employed by various countries in the evaluation of, and/or adjustment, either of census data, or of population estimates based upon census data. The work was carried out to ensure all potential demographic techniques are considered by the ONS for the post census evaluation process of the 2011 Census.     

The effect of changes in timing of childbearing on measuring fertility in England and Wales

Changes in the ages at which women give birth to their children mean that fertility measured at a particular point in time (period) may not be a good representation of the ultimate fertility of those women. The common measure of period fertility is the total fertility rate, which in 2001 has fallen to the lowest level since records began in England and Wales. This article presents various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data. The article concludes that while these adjustment methods provide useful insights, for example, that the total fertility rate has underestimated period quantum fertility since the 1970s, the measures produced are difficult to interpret. This is in part because the concept they are trying to measure, period quantum is itself imprecise. The adjustments do not necessarily provide a reliable indicator of underlying cohort fertility.     

Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based national population projections

One of the key components of national population projections is the assumed level of fertility, which determines the number of future births in the projections. Assumptions are made in terms of the average number of children women will have over their lifetime. For the 2002-based projections this average is assumed to ultimately be 1.75 for England and for Wales, 1.60 for Scotland, and 1.80 for Northern Ireland, leading to a United Kingdom assumption of 1.74. This article explains how these overall assumptions, which are the same as assumed in the 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, are derived. It also explains why these levels are higher than current 'period' indicators of fertility. Finally, information on more detailed age specific fertility rates, and implications for family size distributions, is given.     

Higher qualifications,first-birth timing,and further childbearing in England and Wales

This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly.