灰色残差修正模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用

电力系统负荷预测是电力系统发电计划的重要组成部分,也是电力系统经济运行的基础。本文在应用GM（1,1）模型的基础上,建立了两种应用残差对预测数据进修正的模型。实例表明本文提出的方法较传统GM（1,1）模型有更高的精度。     

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands

The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.     

In situ small angle X-ray scattering investigation of the thermal expansion and related structural information of carbon nanotube composites

In-situ thermal expansion tests on a series of carbon nanotube bucky-paper composites were performed with direct heating within a synchrotron SAXS source. The impact of the samples density and morphology as well as the chemistry and degree of decoration of the carbon nanotubes on the scattering patterns were investigated and correlated to the materials macro-properties. The results demonstrate that simple densification techniques, such as acetone dipping or gold electroless deposition, could reduce greatly the displacements of the carbon nanotubes within the structure and lead to more thermally stable material.