Combining multiple forecasts given multiple objectives

This paper is concerned with expanding the decision support capabilities of computerized forecasting systems. The expansion allows for the systematic combination of multiple forecasts and the explicit consideration of multiple objectives in the forecast selection process. The methodology used is multiple objective linear programming. Selecting an individual forecast based upon a single objective may not make the best use of available information for a variety of reasons. Combined forecasts may provide a better fit with respect to a single objective than any individual forecast. Even if an individual forecast does provide a good fit with respect to a single objective, a combined forecast may provide a better fit with respect to multiple objectives. An example is used to illustrate the expanded decision support system, its outputs and their properties.     

Rocket UV flash spectra from the solar eclipse of March 7, 1970

Flash spectra of the total solar eclipse throughout all its phases have been obtained in the extreme ultraviolet for the first time.     

The signature of supernova ejecta in the X-ray afterglow of the gamma-ray burst 011211

Now that gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been determined to lie at cosmological distances, their isotropic burst energies are estimated to be as high as 1054 erg (ref. 2), making them the most energetic phenomena in the Universe. The nature of the progenitors responsible for the bursts remains, however, elusive. The favoured models range from the merger of two neutron stars in a binary system to the collapse of a massive star. Spectroscopic studies of the afterglow emission could reveal details of the environment of the burst, by indicating the elements present, the speed of the outflow and an estimate of the temperature. Here we report an X-ray spectrum of the afterglow of GRB011211, which shows emission lines of magnesium, silicon, sulphur, argon, calcium and possibly nickel, arising in metal-enriched material with an outflow velocity of the order of one-tenth the speed of light. These observations strongly favour models where a supernova explosion from a massive stellar progenitor precedes the burst event and is responsible for the outflowing matter.     

Transformation and control of ultra-short pulses in dispersion-engineered photonic crystal fibres

Photonic crystal fibres (PCFs) offer greatly enhanced design freedom compared to standard optical fibres. For example, they allow precise control of the chromatic dispersion (CD) profile--the frequency dependence of propagation speed--over a broad wavelength range. This permits studies of nonlinear pulse propagation in previously inaccessible parameter regimes. Here we report on spectral broadening of 100-fs pulses in PCFs with anomalously flat CD profiles. Maps of the spectral and spatio-temporal behaviour as a function of power show that dramatic conversion (to both longer and shorter wavelengths) can occur in remarkably short lengths of fibre, depending on the magnitude and shape of the CD profile. Because the PCFs used are single-mode at all wavelengths, the light always emerges in a fundamental guided mode. Excellent agreement is obtained between the experimental results and numerical solutions of the nonlinear wave equation, indicating that the underlying processes can be reliably modelled. These results show how, through appropriate choice of CD, nonlinearities can be efficiently harnessed to generate laser light at new wavelengths.     

Limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2G is caused by mutations in the gene encoding the sarcomeric protein telethonin

Autosomal recessive limb-girdle muscular dystrophies (AR LGMDs) are a genetically heterogeneous group of disorders that affect mainly the proximal musculature. There are eight genetically distinct forms of AR LGMD, LGMD 2A-H (refs 2-10), and the genetic lesions underlying these forms, except for LGMD 2G and 2H, have been identified. LGMD 2A and LGMD 2B are caused by mutations in the genes encoding calpain 3 (ref. 11) and dysferlin, respectively, and are usually associated with a mild phenotype. Mutations in the genes encoding gamma-(ref. 14), alpha-(ref. 5), beta-(refs 6,7) and delta (ref. 15)-sarcoglycans are responsible for LGMD 2C to 2F, respectively. Sarcoglycans, together with sarcospan, dystroglycans, syntrophins and dystrobrevin, constitute the dystrophin-glycoprotein complex (DGC). Patients with LGMD 2C-F predominantly have a severe clinical course. The LGMD 2G locus maps to a 3-cM interval in 17q11-12 in two Brazilian families with a relatively mild form of AR LGMD (ref. 9). To positionally clone the LGMD 2G gene, we constructed a physical map of the 17q11-12 region and refined its localization to an interval of 1.2 Mb. The gene encoding telethonin, a sarcomeric protein, lies within this candidate region. We have found that mutations in the telethonin gene cause LGMD 2G, identifying a new molecular mechanism for AR LGMD.     

Meclofenamate does not reduce chronic hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction

Summary There was no reduction in the pulmonary pressor response to hypoxia following inhibition of prostaglandin synthesis in rats exposed to chronic hypoxia. A fall in left ventricular weight suggested that systemic pressure may have been reduced after inhibition of prostaglandin synthesis in normoxic rats.This work was supported by NIH grant No. HL14985.     

Trisomy represses Apc(Min)-mediated tumours in mouse models of Down's syndrome

Epidemiological studies spanning more than 50 yr reach conflicting conclusions as to whether there is a lower incidence of solid tumours in people with trisomy 21 (Down's syndrome). We used mouse models of Down's syndrome and of cancer in a biological approach to investigate the relationship between trisomy and the incidence of intestinal tumours. Apc(Min)-mediated tumour number was determined in aneuploid mouse models Ts65Dn, Ts1Rhr and Ms1Rhr. Trisomy for orthologues of about half of the genes on chromosome 21 (Hsa21) in Ts65Dn mice or just 33 of these genes in Ts1Rhr mice resulted in a significant reduction in the number of intestinal tumours. In Ms1Rhr, segmental monosomy for the same 33 genes that are triplicated in Ts1Rhr resulted in an increased number of tumours. Further studies demonstrated that the Ets2 gene contributed most of the dosage-sensitive effect on intestinal tumour number. The action of Ets2 as a repressor when it is overexpressed differs from tumour suppression, which requires normal gene function to prevent cellular transformation. Upregulation of Ets2 and, potentially, other genes involved in this kind of protective effect may provide a prophylactic effect in all individuals, regardless of ploidy.     

An analysis on the predictability of CAPM beta for momentum returns

This paper demonstrates that the forecasted capital asset pricing model (CAPM) beta of momentum portfolios explains a large portion of the return, ranging from 40% to 60% for stock‐level momentum, and from 30% to 50% for industry‐level momentum. Beta forecasts are from a realized beta estimator using daily returns over the prior year. Periods such as 1969–1989 have been found in earlier studies to contain abnormal profits from momentum trading; however, we show that these were spuriously generated by measurement error in systematic risk. These results cast further doubt on the ability of standard momentum trading strategies to generate abnormal profits.