Hybrid Forecasting with Estimated Temporally Aggregated Linear Processes

We introduce a new strategy for the prediction of linear temporal aggregates; we call it ‘hybrid’ and study its performance using asymptotic theory. This scheme consists of carrying out model parameter estimation with data sampled at the highest available frequency and the subsequent prediction with data and models aggregated according to the forecasting horizon of interest. We develop explicit expressions that approximately quantify the mean square forecasting errors associated with the different prediction schemes and that take into account the estimation error component. These approximate estimates indicate that the hybrid forecasting scheme tends to outperform the so‐called ‘all‐aggregated’ approach and, in some instances, the ‘all‐disaggregated’ strategy that is known to be optimal when model selection and estimation errors are neglected. Unlike other related approximate formulas existing in the literature, those proposed in this paper are totally explicit and require neither assumptions on the second‐order stationarity of the sample nor Monte Carlo simulations for their evaluation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glucose sensing by POMC neurons regulates glucose homeostasis and is impaired in obesity

A subset of neurons in the brain, known as 'glucose-excited' neurons, depolarize and increase their firing rate in response to increases in extracellular glucose. Similar to insulin secretion by pancreatic beta-cells, glucose excitation of neurons is driven by ATP-mediated closure of ATP-sensitive potassium (K(ATP)) channels. Although beta-cell-like glucose sensing in neurons is well established, its physiological relevance and contribution to disease states such as type 2 diabetes remain unknown. To address these issues, we disrupted glucose sensing in glucose-excited pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) neurons via transgenic expression of a mutant Kir6.2 subunit (encoded by the Kcnj11 gene) that prevents ATP-mediated closure of K(ATP) channels. Here we show that this genetic manipulation impaired the whole-body response to a systemic glucose load, demonstrating a role for glucose sensing by POMC neurons in the overall physiological control of blood glucose. We also found that glucose sensing by POMC neurons became defective in obese mice on a high-fat diet, suggesting that loss of glucose sensing by neurons has a role in the development of type 2 diabetes. The mechanism for obesity-induced loss of glucose sensing in POMC neurons involves uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2), a mitochondrial protein that impairs glucose-stimulated ATP production. UCP2 negatively regulates glucose sensing in POMC neurons. We found that genetic deletion of Ucp2 prevents obesity-induced loss of glucose sensing, and that acute pharmacological inhibition of UCP2 reverses loss of glucose sensing. We conclude that obesity-induced, UCP2-mediated loss of glucose sensing in glucose-excited neurons might have a pathogenic role in the development of type 2 diabetes.     

Metagenomic and functional analysis of hindgut microbiota of a wood-feeding higher termite

From the standpoints of both basic research and biotechnology, there is considerable interest in reaching a clearer understanding of the diversity of biological mechanisms employed during lignocellulose degradation. Globally, termites are an extremely successful group of wood-degrading organisms and are therefore important both for their roles in carbon turnover in the environment and as potential sources of biochemical catalysts for efforts aimed at converting wood into biofuels. Only recently have data supported any direct role for the symbiotic bacteria in the gut of the termite in cellulose and xylan hydrolysis. Here we use a metagenomic analysis of the bacterial community resident in the hindgut paunch of a wood-feeding 'higher' Nasutitermes species (which do not contain cellulose-fermenting protozoa) to show the presence of a large, diverse set of bacterial genes for cellulose and xylan hydrolysis. Many of these genes were expressed in vivo or had cellulase activity in vitro, and further analyses implicate spirochete and fibrobacter species in gut lignocellulose degradation. New insights into other important symbiotic functions including H2 metabolism, CO2-reductive acetogenesis and N2 fixation are also provided by this first system-wide gene analysis of a microbial community specialized towards plant lignocellulose degradation. Our results underscore how complex even a 1-microl environment can be.     

Diet composition of an invasive population of Lithobates catesbeianus (American Bullfrog) from Argentina

The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus has been introduced around the world, with invasive populations reported from almost all South American countries. A population of this species was introduced in the Calingasta department of San Juan province, which is an arid environment in western Argentina. This work provides information on the dietary composition of an invasive population of L. catesbeianus, and compares the degree of dietary overlap between adults and juveniles. Stomach contents of 169 bullfrogs (82 adults and 87 juveniles) were analysed. Adults consumed 40 prey taxa and Hymenoptera (Insecta) was the most numerous prey item (41.8%), followed by Araneae (13.6%) and Aeglidae (13.4%). Juveniles consumed 29 prey taxa and Hymenoptera constituted the highest percentage in prey number (77.2%). The trophic overlap niche index at the same level shows a value of 0.64 overlap in dietary community between adults and juveniles of this bullfrog. Aeglidae was volumetrically the most important trophic item (25.4%), followed by Anura (25.02%). Our results showed that cannibalism in bullfrogs is more common than the consumption of native anurans, coinciding with that reported in other populations of introduced bullfrogs. The high similarity in the diets of both size classes and the association between the size of the predator and prey suggest that the impact caused by bullfrogs throughout their ontogeny is high and probably has an impact on their prey. Freshwater crabs are the main items in the diet of Lithobates catesbeianus in other introduced populations and are usually the most conspicuous at our study site. The crabs in freshwater ecosystems are part of the lowest trophic level in the food chain. The major threats to the southern region’s freshwater crabs include deforestation, farming and exotic species. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet and high overlap between adults and juveniles.     

On the Persuasiveness of Visual Arguments in Mathematics

Two experiments are reported which investigate the factors that influence how persuaded mathematicians are by visual arguments. We demonstrate that if a visual argument is accompanied by a passage of text which describes the image, both research-active mathematicians and successful undergraduate mathematics students perceive it to be significantly more persuasive than if no text is given. We suggest that mathematicians’ epistemological concerns about supporting a claim using visual images are less prominent when the image is described in words. Finally we suggest that empirical studies can make a useful contribution to our understanding of mathematical practice.     

Mutations in SEC63 cause autosomal dominant polycystic liver disease

Mutations in PRKCSH, encoding the beta-subunit of glucosidase II, an N-linked glycan-processing enzyme in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), cause autosomal dominant polycystic liver disease. We found that mutations in SEC63, encoding a component of the protein translocation machinery in the ER, also cause this disease. These findings are suggestive of a role for cotranslational protein-processing pathways in maintaining epithelial luminal structure and implicate noncilial ER proteins in human polycystic disease.     

Common variants on 1p36 and 1q42 are associated with cutaneous basal cell carcinoma but not with melanoma or pigmentation traits

To search for new sequence variants that confer risk of cutaneous basal cell carcinoma (BCC), we conducted a genome-wide SNP association study of 930 Icelanders with BCC and 33,117 controls. After analyzing 304,083 SNPs, we observed signals from loci at 1p36 and 1q42, and replicated these associations in additional sample sets from Iceland and Eastern Europe. Overall, the most significant signals were from rs7538876 on 1p36 (OR = 1.28, P = 4.4 x 10(-12)) and rs801114 on 1q42 (OR = 1.28, P = 5.9 x 10(-12)). The 1p36 locus contains the candidate genes PADI4, PADI6, RCC2 and ARHGEF10L, and the gene nearest to the 1q42 locus is the ras-homolog RHOU. Neither locus was associated with fair pigmentation traits that are known risk factors for BCC, and no risk was observed for melanoma. Approximately 1.6% of individuals of European ancestry are homozygous for both variants, and their estimated risk of BCC is 2.68 times that of noncarriers.     

Novel macrophage polarization model: from gene expression to identification of new anti-inflammatory molecules

Plasticity is a well-known property of macrophages that is controlled by different changes in environmental signals. Macrophage polarization is regarded as a spectrum of activation phenotypes adjusted from one activation extreme, the classic (M1), to the other, the alternative (M2) activation. Here we show, in vitro and in vivo, that both M1 and M2 macrophage phenotypes are tightly coupled to specific patterns of gene expression. Novel M2-associated markers were characterized and identified as genes controlling the extracellular metabolism of ATP to generate pyrophosphates (PPi). Stimulation of M1 macrophages with PPi dampens both NLR and TLR signaling and thus mediates cytokine production. In this context extracellular PPi enhanced the resolution phase of a murine peritonitis model via a decrease in pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Therefore, our study reveals an additional level of plasticity modulating the resolution of inflammation.