Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

Kant on anatomy and the status of the life sciences

This paper contributes to recent interest in Kant's engagement with the life sciences by focusing on one corner of those sciences that has received comparatively little attention: physical and comparative anatomy. By attending to remarks spread across Kant's writings, we gain some insight into Kant's understanding of the disciplinary limitations but also the methodological sophistication of the study of anatomy and physiology. Insofar as Kant highlights anatomy as a paradigmatic science guided by the principle of teleology in the Critique of the Power of Judgment, a more careful study of Kant's discussions of anatomy promises to illuminate some of the obscurities of that text and of his understanding of the life sciences more generally. In the end, it is argued, Kant's ambivalence with regard to anatomy gives way to a pessimistic conclusion about the possibility that anatomy, natural history, and, by extension, the life sciences more generally might one day become true natural sciences.     

Pervasive roles of microRNAs in cardiovascular biology

First recognized as regulators of development in worms and fruitflies, microRNAs are emerging as pivotal modulators of mammalian cardiovascular development and disease. Individual microRNAs modulate the expression of collections of messenger RNA targets that often have related functions, thereby governing complex biological processes. The wideranging functions of microRNAs in the cardiovascular system have provided new perspectives on disease mechanisms and have revealed intriguing therapeutic targets, as well as diagnostics, for a variety of cardiovascular disorders.     

Spontaneous breaking of time-reversal symmetry in the pseudogap state of a high-Tc superconductor

A change in 'symmetry' is often observed when matter undergoes a phase transition-the symmetry is said to be spontaneously broken. The transition made by underdoped high-transition-temperature (high-Tc) superconductors is unusual, in that it is not a mean-field transition as seen in other superconductors. Rather, there is a region in the phase diagram above the superconducting transition temperature Tc (where phase coherence and superconductivity begin) but below a characteristic temperature T* where a 'pseudogap' appears in the spectrum of electronic excitations. It is therefore important to establish if T* is just a cross-over temperature arising from fluctuations in the order parameter that will establish superconductivity at Tc (refs 3, 4), or if it marks a phase transition where symmetry is spontaneously broken. Here we report that, for a material in the pseudogap state, left-circularly polarized photons give a different photocurrent from right-circularly polarized photons. This shows that time-reversal symmetry is spontaneously broken below T*, which therefore corresponds to a phase transition.     

Suitability of shrub establishment on Wyoming mined lands reclaimed for wildlife habitat

Restoring coal mined land to pre-mining shrub cover, density, height, community composition, and diversity to renew wildlife habitat quality is a priority for reclamation specialists. Long-term shrub reestablishment success on reclaimed mined land in Wyoming and suitability of these lands for wildlife habitat are unknown. Fourteen reclaimed study sites, 10 yr old or older, were selected on 8 mines in Wyoming to evaluate shrub reestablishment and wildlife habitat value for antelope ( Antilocapra americana ) and sage grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). Five sites were categorized as fourwing saltbush ( Atriplex canescens ) sites and 9 as fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush ( A. canescens/Artemisia tridentata spp. wyomingensis ) sites. Published data describing antelope and sage grouse-preferred habitat requirements in sagebrush-grassland steppe ecosystems were used to evaluate shrub community value of sampled sites for wildlife habitat. Mean shrub canopy cover, density, and height for fourwing saltbush sites were 5.8%, 0.23 m -2 , and 41.6 cm, respectively, compared to 5.6%, 0.61 m -2 , and 31.1 cm for fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites. Two fourwing saltbush and 4 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites provided sufficient cover for antelope, while 2 fourwing saltbush and 4 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites were adequate for sage grouse. Only 1 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush site provided high enough shrub densities for sage grouse. One fourwing saltbush and 7 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites provided ample shrub heights for antelope, while 1 fourwing saltbush and 8 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites were sufficient for sage grouse. One fourwing saltbush and 1 fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush site provided enough grass, forb, and shrub composition for antelope, while no site in either reclamation type was satisfactory for sage grouse. Shrub diversity was 3 times higher for fourwing saltbush/big sagebrush sites (0.984) than for fourwing saltbush sites (0.328). Individually, sites seeded with multiple shrub species had higher canopy cover, density, and diversity compared with single-species shrub seedings. Achieving premining shrub cover, density, height, community composition, and diversity within existing bond-release time frames is unrealistic, considering that some native shrublands require 30-60 yr to reach maturity.     

Functional reinnervation of cat sympathetic ganglia with splenic nerve homografts

Zusammenfassung Sympathische Ganglien, wenn mit Fasern desN. splenicus reinnerviert, bilden 2 pharmakologisch differente Synapsengruppen: normale, vom cholinergischen Typ und ca. 20% exitatorische vom «monoaminergischen» Typ, wenn sie von adrenergen Fasern reinnerviert wurden.